After the November election in the United States, there was ample speculation among diplomats, NGOs, and activists about what the ascension of President Donald Trump would mean for US policy in regards to Myanmar. Many predicted a gradual disengagement, reflecting an inward turn towards “America First.” But then it became clear that Trump likely has no idea where Myanmar is located on a map, much less what’s actually happening there.
Many predicted darker times for the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s democratically elected government in exile. Some speculated Myanmar’s democracy forces, who were previously championed by the Biden Administration, would suffer negative consequences. Much of this conjecture was rooted in the known reality that Trump doesn’t have a track record of supporting either human rights causes or democratic movements.
Yet optimistic observations were made by some, considering the possibility that perhaps Trump’s hostility towards China would carry over to perpetuate US engagement in Myanmar, especially given Beijing’s recent more high-profile moves to back the military junta.
More hopes were raised by the confirmation of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. And given his relatively strong record of standing up for Myanmar democracy while he was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, this conjecture seemed somewhat plausible to some observers.
But no one expected the total American wipe-out that Trump and his minion, Elon Musk, have inflicted on Myanmar since taking office. Their freeze on foreign aid, primarily through the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), has caused chaos around the world. On top of this, it seems likely they will indefinitely suspend the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) refugee assistance and resettlement program, adding gasoline to the fire.
America is largely exiting any sort of serious role in addressing the most serious conflict in Southeast Asia. And cutting off aid, ignoring the suffering, the rights abuses, and the humanitarian disaster underway in Myanmar, amounts to a policy of cruelty.
There’s little apparent concern for what this means for the region as well. The MAGA slogan of Trump’s movement may as well mean in this context: “Make ASEAN Go (It) Alone.”
Junta chief Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing and his cronies in Naypyitaw are cheering these developments. Within days, US-funded hospitals and clinics in Thai border refugee camps were closed. Health initiatives assisting the war displaced across borders started drying up. And the Myanmar Education Consortium supporting ethnic and liberated-area education programs now face massive cuts. Even more, safe house networks assisting those fleeing the country have begun shutting down, human rights documentation efforts have ended, and programs to tackle cyber fraud-related human trafficking have halted. The list goes on and on.
The death of refugee grandmother Pe Kha Lau in the Umpiem refugee camp is likely the first of many preventable deaths, all because she could no longer receive her medical oxygen that was provided with US assistance.
Futures are vanishing too—like the one promised in the 2023 deal between the US and Thailand to resettle some 90,000 officially recognised refugees from the border camps. That program has since evaporated, thanks to the arch-nemesis of refugees everywhere: Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller.
Even if USAID manages to survive being fed into the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) “wood chipper,” as Musk boasted he would do on his social media platform X, there won’t be much left of the agency.
In reality, Trump and Musk are treating USAID like a hospital full of patients, in which they are pulling out all the doctors and nurses, shutting off the electricity and water, and locking the doors on the way out. Then in a couple months, they will wander back in to see if anyone survived. The answer is that there will likely be no survivors.
The State Department’s Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL) funding for Myanmar is also on the chopping block, along with the NGO contractors who received and programmed those funds. Even the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), an independent funding agency supported by Congress that has long funded Myanmar human rights, media, and democracy work, is currently blocked from receiving funds. Officials with the group say they cannot gain access to the US Treasury to provide financial transfers of money committed to the NED.
While small sums of the money may eventually be restored, the reality is the Myanmar people and their revolution are going to have to write off most of US support.
Even if USAID endures, it will be a shadow of its former self. Over the next four years, US assistance will likely be redirected to countries closer to home—those willing to take in the hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of undocumented migrants the Trump administration plans to deport.
What little US political pressure on Myanmar remains, already waning from neglect, is likely to plunge even further. Sanctions on the junta, military leaders, and their business cronies have already increasingly become a once-a-year exercise, timed to coincide with the date of the February 1 military coup. But it will likely get even less frequent as the Trump team devalues human rights concerns.
The Trump administration is fixated on punishing countries with trade surpluses with the US, but Myanmar’s $579 million surplus in 2024 is a drop in the bucket compared to its neighbors.
Governments like Vietnam ($123.5 billion surplus) and Thailand ($45.6 billion surplus) have something to worry about. Even Cambodia had a $12.3 billion trade surplus in 2024, showing just how far back Myanmar is in this critical area of consideration for tariff-happy Trump.
Moving forward, the European Union, along with Canada, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and other remaining democratic governments are going to need to close the hole left by America’s willful absence. And they’re going to have to dig deep.
Greater assistance will be needed to address urgent humanitarian needs, and stronger public voices must advocate for human rights and democracy in Myanmar, while pushing back against schemes like Min Aung Hlaing’s planned fraudulent election. Increased political pressure will be needed too, and better coordinated sanctions to shut down the junta and its cronies’ money-hungry, war-making schemes.
The Myanmar people have grown accustomed to fighting their battle alone, struggling to oust the predatory junta and its leaders while reclaiming their democracy. Trump’s move to gut US foreign aid and abandon Myanmar democracy is just the latest blow. But as the saying goes—what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
- Phil Robertson is a long time Burmese rights and democracy activist, and the Director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates (AHRLA)
