Rakhine State floods put AA administration to its biggest test yet

As floodwaters surged through villages across Myanmar’s Rakhine State, families raced to higher ground carrying children, sacks of rice, and the few possessions they could save. Livestock swam alongside their owners through muddy currents, while relentless rain submerged roads, bridges, and farmland. For many residents, however, escaping the flood was just the start of their struggle for survival. How well they cope with the impact of the deluge will also depend on whether the authorities now governing most of the state can respond to its aftermath. The torrential rains that inundated much of Rakhine in early July have become one of the biggest tests yet for the Arakan People's Revolutionary Government (APRG), the civilian administration established by the Arakan Army (AA) across territory under its control. Having emerged from years of conflict as the de facto authority in most of the state, the AA is now being judged not only on its military success but also on its ability to govern—providing disaster relief, restoring essential services, stabilising markets, and supporting farmers while fighting an ongoing war against Myanmar’s military junta. How the administration handles these overlapping crises could shape public confidence in its long-term ambitions to govern Rakhine. Urgent need Heavy rainfall during the first week of July triggered widespread flooding across Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships. Rescue groups said floodwaters rose between 5 and 10 feet in some areas, claiming at least five lives and affecting tens of thousands of people. Bridges collapsed, riverbanks eroded, homes were swept away, and newly planted rice fields disappeared beneath muddy water. “We couldn’t sleep because the rain was so heavy,” said Myat Su, 20, from Kyaukkyat, a village in Mrauk-U Township. “The water just kept rising.” The flooding comes at a time when the AA is working to establish its authority in the 14 of Rakhine State’s 17 townships that it now controls. After a series of battlefield victories over Myanmar’s military, many communities now look to the group for assistance—and those expectations extend far beyond emergency relief. Residents and community leaders say the AA’s APRG administration is increasingly expected to repair damaged infrastructure, restore clean water supplies, support agricultural recovery, regulate commodity prices, and maintain essential services despite wartime conditions. Among the flood’s immediate consequences is an urgent need for safe drinking water. In Maunghnama, a village of nearly 90 households in Mrauk-U Township, residents have long depended on two communal ponds for drinking water. However, after the flood, both reservoirs were filled with mud and silt. “The water is no longer drinkable,” said Htay Htay Oo, 27, who recently visited the village. “People are collecting rainwater now. Once the rain stops, there could be a serious shortage.” Similar damage has been reported in Kyauktaw, Minbya, and Ponnagyun townships. Health workers have advised residents to boil water before drinking, avoid unnecessary travel, properly dispose of dead livestock, and remain alert for snakes and other animals displaced by the floods. While such public health guidance has circulated widely, communities say long-term recovery will depend on whether damaged water sources can be restored quickly. Lost crops Perhaps nowhere are expectations higher than among farmers. The flood struck during one of the most critical periods of the rice-growing season, destroying seed paddy that had already been planted across large areas. Hla Thein Maung, who farms eight acres in the village of Myaung Bway in Mrauk-U Township, said his carefully selected seed paddy from last year’s harvest was completely washed away. “As soon as the water receded, I went to inspect the fields,” he said. “Ploughing again is very difficult. The oxen can’t work because of the sand left behind, and hiring machinery is expensive.” Farmers have only a little more than a month to prepare their fields before the planting season closes. Without assistance—whether through seed distribution, equipment or financial support—many fear they will miss this year’s crop entirely. For an economy heavily dependent on agriculture, the consequences could extend well beyond individual households. Even before the floods, Rakhine State’s economy was struggling under the weight of a protracted conflict. Since late 2023, when the AA launched its offensive against the regime, Myanmar’s military has restricted trade routes linking Rakhine with the rest of the country. As a result, communities have come to increasingly rely on imports through India’s Mizoram State. That supply line has now been slowed by flooding and landslides. “Landslides blocked roads, and strong currents, have made transport dangerous,” said a fuel importer who requested anonymity because of security concerns. The delays have disrupted deliveries of food, fuel, and medicine, contributing to sharp price increases across several townships. Within days of the flooding, the price of an egg doubled from about 500 kyat to roughly 1,000 kyat in parts of Rakhine. Garlic rose from about 14,000 kyat to 20,000 kyat per viss, while onions increased from 10,000 kyat to 12,000 kyat per viss. Those increases have intensified calls for intervention by the APRG. “The current government needs to set fixed prices for these goods,” said Myo Hein Hlaing, chair of the Phyu Sin Yin Khwin Foundation, a social relief organisation based in Ponnagyun. He said emergency price controls could help protect consumers without unfairly burdening merchants during the crisis. Cash crunch The disaster has also highlighted the limitations of Rakhine’s financial system. Since conventional banks largely ceased operating after fighting escalated in 2023, residents have depended almost entirely on mobile money services such as KPay and Wave Money. But cash itself has become scarce. Withdrawal fees have climbed sharply, with some communities reporting that cashing out 100,000 kyat now costs as much as 7,000 kyat. For families relying on remittances from relatives working abroad, the added costs are significant. “Withdrawing 1 million kyat now costs about 80,000 kyat,” said Aung Myo Oo from Sinthei, a village in Ponnagyun Township. “That’s equivalent to the price of a bag of rice.” A woman providing cash-out services in Minbya said the shortage stems from a lack of cash circulating among merchants. “When merchants stop operating, cash becomes difficult to find,” she said. “When cash becomes scarce, withdrawal fees increase.” Residents say they hope the APRG can address those problems as it develops its own financial institutions. Sources close to the AA say the administration is working toward establishing a banking system, though details remain limited. Meanwhile, the conflict continues unabated. On July 10, Myanmar’s military carried out an airstrike in Gwa Township despite no reported ground fighting, killing three civilians and seriously injuring two others, according to local accounts. Residents in Kyaukphyu also reported continuing naval bombardments as fighting persisted despite the disaster. Analysts say the AA appears determined to maintain military pressure while simultaneously expanding its civilian administration. “The AA’s current posture combines combat with state-building,” one analyst said. “Because it has established a functioning administrative mechanism, it believes it can continue humanitarian work while sustaining military operations.” The group’s commander, Twan Mrat Naing, has previously pledged to capture the remaining junta-held towns in Rakhine before the end of 2027. But now, the AA’s legitimacy rests less on its military gains than on its ability to govern. And that will be measured in concrete terms: the restoration of drinking water in villages that are running dry, and support for farmers looking to replant their crops before the season ends. Price stability and access to essential services are also major concerns that many are looking to the APRG to address. The July floods have transformed those questions from long-term policy challenges into immediate tests of governance. For families standing in muddy homes waiting for clean water, affordable food and help rebuilding their livelihoods, the answers may matter as much as who controls the battlefield.

Rakhine State floods put AA administration to its biggest test yet

With most of the state now under its control, the group must now prove that it can meet people’s needs as well as it can fight

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