In Sagaing, moves towards envisioning a federal future for Myanmar

As resistance forces make headway in their struggle against Myanmar’s military, efforts are underway to establish a policy and political framework for regional governance in Sagaing Region, one of the strongholds of the anti-coup movement. The aim is to create a system of checks and balances among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches at the regional level. On November 17, the Committee Representing the Sagaing Hluttaw and its counterparts in Magway and Tanintharyi regions announced that they had passed bills to initiate preparations for the drafting of interim constitutions for their respective regions. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the party ousted from power by the 2021 coup, welcomed this move by its members, who make up the majority of those serving in these committees, seeing it as a crucial step towards the formation of a federal union aligned with the people’s will and the exercise of the right to self-determination. The leaders of the National Unity Government (NUG), formed in the wake of the coup to represent Myanmar’s legitimate civilian government, also conveyed their approval in messages to the Sagaing committee, now renamed the Sagaing Federal Unit Hluttaw (SFUH). Resistance fighters travel between villages in Sagaing Region’s Khin-U Township in November 2022 (Moe Oo/ Myanmar Now) However on November 21, anti-regime strike organisations in Sagaing rejected the bill, contending that the SFUH did not adhere to the values, procedures, and agreements of the Federal Democracy Charter (FDC) published by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw on March 31, 2021, to provide a roadmap to Myanmar’s post-dictatorship political future. Ratified the following year by the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), the body in charge of coordinating cooperation among federal democracy forces, the FDC aims to replace the military-drafted 2008 constitution with one more consistent with the political aspirations of Myanmar’s people. The following day, more than 100 Sagaing-based organisations led by the Sagaing Forum Organising Committee issued a statement urging the SFUH to adopt a more inclusive political process rather than focusing solely on lawmaking. They called for the creation of a Regional People’s Assembly, akin to the one the NUCC organised when the FDC was approved. Myint Htwe, the chair of the SFUH, welcomed the concerns raised by the Sagaing Forum and local political actors in a November 24 interview with DVB. He emphasized that SFUH is prepared to invite relevant parties and local actors to participate in the drafting process for the Sagaing Interim Constitution, encouraging informal discussions as the bill is in the initial stages of building sub-national governance. The Sagaing Forum, a regional initiative, was launched in late May 2023 as a departure from conventional top-down political models. Advocating for a more bottom-up approach, the forum prioritises the voices and needs of local communities, with the goal of creating an inclusive Sagaing federal political body. Recent reports on the forum’s social media page proudly announced the establishment of the Sagaing People’s Support Network, consisting of 27 local aid groups dedicated to assisting internally displaced persons affected by the junta’s atrocities. The network is active in 20 townships, engaging in activities such as data collection, civilian protection training, and the distribution of winter clothes and limited cash assistance. A family flees from armed clashes in Sagaing Region in March 2022 (Moe Oo/Myanmar Now) Meetings with key figures, including Myanmar’s United Nations ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun and the NUG’s deputy minister for humanitarian affairs and disaster management, Dr. Ngai Tam Maung, underline the Sagaing Forum’s role in addressing critical humanitarian needs in the region. It is also holding discussions with Yee Mon, the NUG’s minister of defence, as part of its efforts to mobilise local People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) not under his ministry’s regional command. Notably, the gradual emergence of the Sagaing Forum and the discussions surrounding it have significantly shaped various aspects of regional politics, political coordination, and stakeholders’ engagement. Committees such as the SFUH and the NUG’s Federal and State Coordination Committee (FSCC) are also playing pivotal roles in enhancing political interactions with local actors, including ethnic communities in Sagaing. Policy intervention and guidance from the NUCC, if any, could also be of interest. These unfolding developments promise to shape Sagaing’s political landscape as it moves towards becoming part of a more federalised country in the near future. While discussions seem to be in the early stages, intriguing possibilities have arisen, ranging from the formation of a Sagaing Federal Council to the integration of the SFUH and the Forum with ethnic groups within Sagaing and local defence forces. The role of other key actors in region, including the NUG’s People’s Administrative Teams and People’s Security Teams, can also be considered within the context of discussions about subnational governance. Deliberations on the roles each of these groups will play, and how and at what stages they will converge to make the regional governance politically meaningful and effective, present promising prospects for building a future federalised Myanmar. Discussions about the potential formation of more federal units in majority Bamar regions such as Sagaing, Magwe, and Mandalay have gained momentum. This shift is marked by regional political discussions aimed at formulating interim measures for federalism. Simultaneously, the voices of local communities advocating for a bottom-up approach have gained prominence. This approach prioritises inclusivity, local empowerment, and collaborative decision-making to address the immediate needs of affected communities and pave the way for sustainable solutions. The Sagaing Forum Organising Committee recently announced plans to organise a second round of the Sagaing Forum in the coming months. The objective is to forge arrangements leading to the establishment of a regional political body tentatively named the Sagaing Federal Council. The suggested steps include bringing together stakeholders, drafting an interim political plan for approval by the regional assembly, and paving the way for the formation of the regional body. A group of anti-regime resistance fighters improvises a mortar launcher from metal scrap in Sagaing Region in March 2022 (Moe Oo/Myanmar Now) The evolving political and security dynamics in Sagaing may lead to one of three significant outcomes: Formation of a Sagaing Federal Council: This regional political entity would integrate NLD’s regionally elected members from the 2020 general elections, the Sagaing Forum’s affiliated organisations, and other stakeholders. Operating as a regional political body, it could function similarly to the Karenni State Interim Executive Council, cultivating regional governance through checks and balances. An NUCC-NUG model for Sagaing: The SFUH, with a few political actors, could form the Sagaing Federal Unit with executive powers. Simultaneously, the Sagaing Forum might evolve or establish a political consultative body, resembling the NUCC, contributing policy inputs and guidance to the SFUH’s dominant regional executive body. A centrist role for the Sagaing Forum: The forum might assert a bridging role, managing diverse interests among pro-democracy organisations, ethnic groups, and local PDFs not under NUG’s command. This option could focus on finding common ground for the benefit of the political system or the region as a whole, emphasising accountability and transparency. Regardless of the eventual outcome, categorising these results as inherently good or bad is a theoretical exercise; each potential scenario carries its own set of advantages and challenges. The emerging political developments in Sagaing signify a substantial step forward in setting up regional federal governance in the heartlands of Myanmar, showcasing resilience and adeptness in navigating regional-level politics amid the weakening control of the military junta. Former student activist Zaw Tuseng is president of the Myanmar Policy Institute (MPI), an independent organisation serving the needs of Myanmar’s pro-democracy policy actors.

In Sagaing, moves towards envisioning a federal future for Myanmar

The region, in the country’s Bamar heartland, has already begun looking at how it can reshape itself to fit into a new model of governance

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