Despite escalating violence, Myanmar junta leader says elections will proceed

Even as clashes between the army and anti-junta forces intensify and spread in Myanmar, junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has claimed that a general election—which would involve every constituency in the country—will soon be held. Speaking at the ceremony for the most recent graduating class of the Defence Services Academy (DSA) in Pyin Oo Lwin, Min Aung Hlaing referred to the upcoming election without specifying a planned date, but made assurances that the groundwork for the voting process was underway. "Since basic procedures have already begun for holding elections successfully, we would like to tell you that if only we have everyone’s cooperation, we will achieve our goal promptly,” the junta leader said in a speech broadcast on military-run television. Following the 2020 general election, in which the National League for Democracy party led by Aung San Suu Kyi won a decisive majority of votes and parliamentary seats, the Myanmar military carried out a coup in February 2021, accusing the victors of electoral fraud. The coup was a breach of the military chief’s pledge, made publicly before the 2020 general election, to accept results that aligned with the will of the people. The military junta has repeatedly asserted that they plan to hold free and fair elections since seizing power. However, as popular protests against the coup in the cities developed into an anti-junta armed resistance movement on a national scale, the prospects for such an election became more and more remote. The junta declared and later extended an ostensibly temporary state of emergency that remains in effect to this day. Chances for an election diminish amid escalating violence In northern Shan State, the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed organisations—which includes the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army as its members—initiated the Operation 1027 offensive at the end of October, assaulting hundreds of military outposts. Following the launch of Operation 1027, resistance groups throughout the country have started their own offensive campaigns in other parts of Myanmar. The publicly-backed National Unity Government (NUG)—an anti-junta, shadow government formed and endorsed by ousted elected officials in the wake of the coup—responded to the junta chief’s remarks at the DSA, arguing that the prospect of holding elections while the junta confronts its current military, political, and economic difficulties is unrealistic. “Min Aung Hlaing is seeking a political exit from this situation by holding elections as he runs out of other options,” said Maung Maung Swe, spokesperson for the NUG’s ministry of defence. “However, without a firm grasp on territory, conducting nationwide elections free of lapses or postponements is no longer feasible.” The Myanmar army is struggling and often failing to hold its bases while under attack by anti-junta fighters across a number of northern Shan State border towns, the Karenni State capital of Loikaw, Rakhine State’s Pauktaw and Ponnagyun townships, and various parts of Chin and Karen states as well as Bago, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions. Since the launch of Operation 1027, the army has lost more than 200 of its bases and entire infantry battalions have surrendered to resistance groups. Resistance forces have also taken over various towns, and may soon control more than ten across northern Shan State, Chin State, and Sagaing Region. MNDAA troops captured Konkyan, Shan State, on November 28 (Photo – The Kokang) For the military, a time of defeat and disunity In his address to the DSA graduating class after more than a month of losses, Min Aung Hlaing stressed the need for unity in the military. "Unity within the Tatmadaw is paramount,” the general said, using the Burmese term for the armed forces. “A united Tatmadaw is impervious to attacks and a strong Tatmadaw ensures a strong nation. So I would like to say that it is imperative that we prioritise fostering unity within the army to safeguard our nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” This year's annual DSA graduation is the third ceremony of its kind since the military coup, and the number of graduating cadets has significantly decreased since the 2021 ceremony. Recruiting new military personnel poses a substantial challenge for the junta as it grapples with increasing attacks on its positions throughout the country. Information obtained by Myanmar Now from the Prison Department—which operates as part of the military-controlled ministry of home affairs—indicates that even imprisoned soldiers are being summoned for service as the army’s need for manpower grows more urgent. NUG defence spokesperson Maung Maung Swe dismissed the junta chief’s promises to hold elections as a ploy to encourage unity among military personnel. "This is a tactic to dupe his own soldiers and boost their morale with false promises of elections. He is telling the soldiers they won’t have to die anymore after the elections are held,” Maung Maung Swe said. The generals’ hollow promises With the rising number of clashes between army troops and anti-junta fighters, audio recordings frequently surface on social media of junta troops urgently requesting assistance from their superiors. The voices of the soldiers pleading for air strikes as their bases are besieged or overrun by anti-junta forces are captured in these recordings. Their superior officers can be heard answering that planes are on the way, but the promised support never arrives and the enlisted men are left to be killed. Under these conditions, Min Aung Hlaing’s task of persuading his officers to remain loyal is a difficult one, said Captain Yin Zaw, an army officer with more than 20 years’ service who defected to the opposition following the 2021 coup. "At every graduation ceremony, he always returns to the subject of the coup, attributing it to electoral fraud in a bid to persuade his audience. He emphasises the importance of cohesion within the army, but even convincing his own personnel is a challenge,” Captain Zin Yaw said. As outlined in the 2008 Constitution, drafted while the military was in power, states of emergency can be extended four times at most, with each extension effective for six months. However, the military council extended its emergency authority even after reaching this time limit, citing the ongoing instability in the country as justification.

Despite escalating violence, Myanmar junta leader says elections will proceed

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