Recent days have witnessed a surge in rumours regarding the supposed ouster or resignation of Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing. These claims, which were later debunked by photographs of Min Aung Hlaing meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, highlight a troubling reality: Myanmar’s Spring Revolution is deeply entangled in an information war.
Understanding this phenomenon necessitates a closer examination of both the production and consumption of false information and its impact on the ongoing conflict.
The information ecosystem: supply and demand
The spread of misinformation and disinformation is not merely a matter of falsehoods circulating through digital channels. It is part of a complex ecosystem where various actors play roles in both producing and consuming information. Disinformation, defined as false information disseminated with the intent to deceive, and misinformation, which lacks such intent but is still false, often overlap. Both contribute to the broader information environment, shaping perceptions and influencing behaviour.
The recent rumours about Min Aung Hlaing’s fate underscore this complexity. They emerged against the backdrop of significant developments in Myanmar’s political landscape, including territorial losses by the military to revolutionary groups and a worsening economic situation. The rumours were fuelled by a mix of hope, speculation, and a craving for sensational news. This reflects the broader trend of how misinformation and disinformation can gain traction and shape public discourse.
The political context of the rumour
To fully grasp the spread of the Min Aung Hlaing rumour, one must consider the political context in which it arose. The Spring Revolution has been marked by intense conflict and significant changes on the ground. Revolutionary groups, particularly the members of the Brotherhood Alliance—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army—have made substantial territorial gains. The most notable has been the MNDAA’s capture of the Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio earlier this month.
The economic and humanitarian conditions in Myanmar are also rapidly deteriorating. The impact of the ongoing conflict has exacerbated these issues, leading to widespread suffering and hardship among the population. In this context, rumours about Min Aung Hlaing’s removal resonate with those who are disillusioned and desperate for change.
Moreover, China’s increasing involvement in Myanmar adds another layer of complexity. Reports suggest that China, dissatisfied with Min Aung Hlaing’s handling of the crisis, has influence over the Brotherhood Alliance. The recent visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was seen as applying pressure on the junta, highlighting Min Aung Hlaing’s precarious position. This backdrop makes rumours about his potential removal or resignation particularly compelling and believable.
The supply side of misinformation
The spread of the Min Aung Hlaing rumour can be attributed to various factors within the information ecosystem. Rather than being the work of a few individuals, the rumour is part of a broader network of information producers. This network includes ex-military officers and their military informers, independent media outlets, social media influencers, and ordinary citizens who engage in the creation and dissemination of information—whether out of hope, naivety, or a desire for engagement.
Some producers of misinformation may have genuinely hoped that Min Aung Hlaing was ousted or resigned. They may have imagined or wished for a scenario where the junta’s control was weakened, fuelling their willingness to spread such rumours. Others, including some media outlets and social media influencers, might have been motivated by the pursuit of clicks, shares, and engagement on platforms like Facebook, Messenger, Signal, Telegram, and WhatsApp. The pursuit of viral content often drives sensational reporting, further amplifying both misinformation and disinformation.
However, not all disseminators of false information have malicious intent. Many are driven by a desire to share what they hope to be true, motivated by a scarcity of positive news in a bleak situation. In the context of Myanmar, where good news is rare and desperately sought, misinformation about Min Aung Hlaing’s fate spread quickly. The desire for positive developments, even if speculative or false, can lead to rapid dissemination of such information.
The demand side: a hunger for news
On the demand side, the habits and behaviours of Myanmar’s people play a crucial role in the spread of misinformation. The extensive use of social media and instant messaging apps has created a fertile ground for the rapid spread of both misinformation and disinformation. The intense focus on news related to the Spring Revolution, combined with widespread dissatisfaction with the current political and economic situation, drives people to consume and share information eagerly.
Myanmar’s people have endured significant hardships due to the coup and ongoing conflict. While not all may seek radical political change, the impact of the coup and civil war has been severe. The general populace, with the exception of staunch military supporters and certain nationalist groups, has suffered tremendously. In this environment, any news suggesting a potential end to the junta’s rule or improvement in conditions is eagerly embraced and spread.
The rapid spread of rumours, such as those about Min Aung Hlaing, reflects a broader trend of information consumption in times of crisis. People are more likely to believe and share information that aligns with their hopes or expectations, especially when faced with a lack of reliable news sources. This behaviour underscores the need for critical information practices and the importance of verifying news before sharing it.
The path forward
The Min Aung Hlaing rumour highlights the complexities of information warfare in Myanmar’s Spring Revolution. As misinformation and disinformation continue to proliferate, it is essential for all stakeholders—media, informers, influencers, and citizens—to adopt more discerning information practices. Addressing the challenges posed by misinformation requires a multifaceted approach, including media literacy, fact-checking, and responsible reporting.
The next wave of misinformation may demand more substantial content to achieve similar impact, but the lessons learned from the Min Aung Hlaing incident should guide efforts to combat false information. By fostering a more critical and informed public, Myanmar can better navigate the complexities of its ongoing conflict and work towards a more accurate and reliable information environment.
*Nyi Nyi Kyaw is an International Development Research Centre (Canada) research chair on forced displacement in Southeast Asia, currently based at the Regional Center for Social Science and Sustainable Development at Chiang Mai University in Thailand.
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