Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing: The dictator who would be president

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing officially dissolved the State Administration Council (SAC) on July 31, four and a half years after seizing power in a military coup on February 1, 2021. The dissolution brought an end to the junta body that has ruled Myanmar since the ousting of the elected government. Far from stepping back, the coup leader has rebranded his regime. He declared the formation of a new 10-member “State Security and Peace Commission” and appointed himself the country’s acting president. “We have already passed the first chapter. Now, we are starting the second chapter,” he proclaimed in state media, signalling a new phase in his rule. Despite the reshuffle, analysts say the changes are a deceptive cosmetic makeover designed to mislead both domestic and international audiences. “It's a sleight of hand—the most brazen kind,” one observer remarked. “But in a world with Russia, China, and Belarus cheering him on, he may well be received with handshakes, not scrutiny.” Despite the name change, the regime’s structure remains largely the same. Min Aung Hlaing handed his former role as “prime minister” to his loyal subordinate, General Nyo Saw, who will serve in his new position in civilian attire. General Aung Lin Dwe, the SAC’s secretary, has been moved into a newly created post as “executive secretary” of the new military commission, also in civilian dress. While Myanmar state media claimed the State of Emergency was being lifted with the SAC’s dissolution, observers note this was not due to any genuine return to stability. Instead, it is seen as a calculated move to present an illusion of normalcy as the junta prepares for elections in December. “There is no actual peace or stability,” said Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political analyst. “The basic conditions required to hold free and fair elections—freedom, safety, and stability—do not exist anywhere in the country.” Min Aung Hlaing’s actions on the ground reinforce this. Instead of fostering conditions for political parties to organise freely, the junta has escalated military operations nationwide, launching heavy counteroffensives and tightening control over territory. The promise of transition is dropped The regime’s latest political roadmap reflects a deeper effort to consolidate power behind a democratic façade. A key promise from the original five-point SAC plan—to transfer power to a government elected through a multiparty election—has been quietly removed. In its place, the junta now offers a vague pledge to implement a “disciplined multiparty democracy with public participation,” but with no mention of a timeline or commitment to an actual transfer of authority. The roadmap’s new language also specifies that only political forces and representatives that uphold “national interests” will be allowed to emerge—criteria widely understood to mean alignment with military doctrine. “This is not a roadmap to democracy,” Than Soe Naing said. “It’s a roadmap to filtered politics, where participation is conditional and controlled.” A Chinese-style power structure? Than Soe Naing believes Min Aung Hlaing is adopting a system similar to China’s, where the head of state retains ultimate authority through the military, regardless of civilian titles. “He plans to become both president and chair of a new central military commission, much like the CCP’s model,” he said. “Even if he gives up the commander-in-chief post, he’ll still control the military—and no one will be able to remove him.” Military sources in Naypyitaw expect that after the December elections, Min Aung Hlaing will be nominated by military-backed lawmakers as vice president, then elected president by parliament in March 2026. “He’ll take the oath of office on March 30,” one retired officer told Myanmar Now. “After that, he’ll formally hand over the commander-in-chief post, probably to Kyaw Swar Lin, but the chain of command will remain under his thumb.” Kyaw Swar Lin, who currently serves as the armed forces’ chief of general staff, is a full generation younger than Min Aung Hlaing and largely beholden to him for his rise through the ranks. Militarised election preparation In the lead-up to the polls, the newly formed military commission is expected to oversee renewed offensives to reclaim territory from resistance forces across the country. “Min Aung Hlaing will try to regain as much ground as possible before the election,” Than Soe Naing said. “We expect him to seek assistance from China and Russia to carry out large-scale operations.” He warned that opposition forces must prepare for intensified fighting and further instability. Since the 2021 coup, Min Aung Hlaing has governed through the military-dominated National Defence and Security Council and the SAC. The rebranding of the junta as a “peace commission,” combined with the dissolution of the SAC and revision of the political roadmap, appears aimed at legitimising a prolonged and more entrenched form of authoritarian rule. Far from returning Myanmar to a civilian government, the changes reinforce a long-term strategy to secure Min Aung Hlaing’s control under a new title, without relinquishing any real power. The junta has announced plans to hold elections in December 2025 in territories under its control. Observers warn, however, that the period leading up to the vote could see an escalation in airstrikes and other military operations aimed at securing areas ahead of polling. “He’ll ramp up airstrikes as that’s the only tool left in his hand,” said a former senior army general based in Naypyitaw. “He’ll try to show the world something legitimate is happening, but nobody’s fooled anymore.” The message from the military chief is clear: elections may be held, but the outcome will be tightly managed—and the military, now under a new banner, will remain firmly in charge. The reshuffle comes as the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s civilian shadow government formed in response to the coup, works to strengthen its governing structure. In a July 29 statement, the NUG said it would reorganise its ministries into six key sectors to better reflect the current revolutionary landscape and support governance in resistance-held areas. Moe Zaw Oo, the NUG’s deputy foreign minister, said the junta’s latest moves were part of a broader effort to deceive the world into accepting its legitimacy. “They’re trying to fool the international community with new names and institutions, but no one is really fooled anymore,” he said. “As long as the dictatorship survives, our revolution will continue. There is no reason to waver or hesitate.” The National League for Democracy, which won a landslide victory in the 2020 general election, has been dissolved by the junta since it seized power. Its top leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi, are either in prison, in exile, or working underground in the armed resistance movement against the military. Roughly 50 political parties—most of them military proxies or aligned with the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party—are expected to contest the upcoming polls. While the exact configuration of parties likely to form the next puppet parliament remains unclear, one thing is certain: Min Aung Hlaing will be the one calling all the shots.

Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing: The dictator who would be president

Min Aung Hlaing’s latest political manoeuvre aims to secure lifelong control behind a civilian façade

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