As Myanmar military loses border trade hub, it is unclear who will assume control

Myawaddy, a major trade hub in Karen State, faces an uncertain future following the fall of the regime’s last outpost to anti-junta forces early on Thursday morning. A spokesperson for the Karen National Union (KNU) said on Monday that his organisation had legitimate authority to govern Myawaddy, which is located on the west side of the Moei (Thaungyin) River opposite the town of Mae Sot in Thailand’s Tak Province. Just three days later, the Karen ethnic organisation claimed that its armed wing and allied forces had succeeded in capturing the Myanmar army’s Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 275 base outside the town. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) led an alliance of anti-junta forces in taking over the outpost at 4:20am on Thursday, according to sources close to the ethnic Karen armed group. The anti-junta fighters later distributed photos of the large stockpile of weapons seized at the base on social media. A soldier of the Karen National Liberation Army seen in Myawaddy on April 11, 2024 (AFP) After losing the base, the military regime no longer has an effective presence in Myawaddy. However, with at least one other armed group operating in the town, it remains unclear whether the KNU is in a position to assume control. The Border Guard Force (BGF)—a sometime ally of the military that rebranded as the ‘Karen National Army’ (KNA) in March after breaking ties with the regime—has also been supervising the town’s security. The group has claimed neutrality in the conflict between the KNU and the military regime. “It seems unlikely that a conflict will arise. From what I know, our top officials are focused on keeping the town safe from any hostilities,” said Maj. Naing Maung Zaw, a spokesperson for the BGF/KNA. The military is also unwilling to relinquish control after its loss. Around noon on Thursday, a military convoy passed through the town of Kyondo, Kawkareik Township some 40 miles to the west, carrying troops, weapons, and ammunition towards Myawaddy. The area around Kawkareik is largely under the control of the KNLA’s Brigade 6 and its allies despite a few remaining junta strongholds in the area, and the convoy has come under attack on the road, according to a Brigade 6 spokesperson. As of the time of reporting, however, it was still en route to Myawaddy. Map showing the positions of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Border Guard Force (BGF/KNA) in and near Myawaddy. The BGF/KNA has claimed to be neutral in the conflict between the junta and KNLA. Local sources in Myawaddy claimed to have seen junta troops from the LIB 275 base waiting to cross the border into Thailand after abandoning the outpost during the anti-junta forces’ attacks. They were seen at the 2nd Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge, one of two such bridges connecting Myawaddy and Mae Sot, according to the same sources. Locals also informally refer to the bridges as Border Bridge 1 and 2. “They haven’t crossed the border yet. They are still on the Myanmar side of Border Bridge 2,” a Myawaddy Township resident told Myanmar Now at around 10am local time. Photos distributed by the KNU showed around a dozen junta soldiers on the Myawaddy side of the Second Bridge, while other local sources claimed that as many as 100 LIB 275 troops were waiting to cross the border. Myanmar Now has not yet been able to verify the precise number of junta troops that fled from the LIB 275 base, nor the number killed, injured, or captured at the base during the KNLA-led attack. Soldiers of LIB 275 seen at the 2nd Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge waiting to cross the border to Mae Sot, Thailand (Photo: KNU) The Myawaddy-Mae Sot crossing serves as the largest border trade hub between the two countries. It has handled a total of US $4.4 billion worth of imports and exports since the coup, constituting 23 percent of all bilateral trade in the same period, according to data collected by the junta-controlled ministry of commerce. The junta has lost other vital border trade hubs to anti-junta groups in recent months. The Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed organisations seized Chin Shwe Haw and the 105-Mile Trade Zone near Muse on the Shan State-China border late last year, and the Kachin Independence Army captured Lwegel (Lweje or Loi Je) on the Kachin State-China border last Friday. The loss of the Myawaddy-Mae Sot crossing—which is used for the import of medicines, food, cosmetics, consumer goods, clothing, and plastic raw materials from Thailand—would deliver a devastating blow to the Myanmar military regime’s revenue from trade and could send the prices of essential goods soaring. According to civilian residents of Myawaddy, the junta air force has continued to conduct airstrikes on the outskirts of town through Thursday morning. Since Tuesday, thousands have been trying to flee Myawaddy and seek refuge across the border in Mae Sot, according to volunteers from local social welfare groups. “We saw around 800 people waiting at Border Bridge 1 this morning,” a volunteer said on Thursday. “Thai authorities said they could accept about 10,000 of the displaced people crossing the border.” Thailand’s prime minister Srettha Thavisin said on Thursday that he had directed Thai military and foreign affairs officials to make contact with the fighting forces in Myanmar to ensure the violence would not spread over the border. However, despite a high-security alert currently in effect on the Thai side of the border, including Mae Sot, Thai authorities have not yet made any observable preparations to accommodate the expected influx of displaced people, according to local sources. “We haven’t seen any preparations by Thai authorities for refugees yet. Most of the displaced people will be staying at relatives’ homes or renting houses in Mae Sot,” a social welfare volunteer in Myawaddy said. Fierce battles for the control of Myawaddy broke out between junta forces and the KNLA-led alliance last Friday after the latter seized a military base in the village of Thin Gan Nyi Naung, Myawaddy Township, forcing the surrender of 477 junta soldiers including 67 officers. Thin Gan Nyi Naung was among several bases seized by the KNLA-led fighters on the Kawkareik-Myawaddy road, a section of the Asia Highway vital for transporting trade goods to the border.

As Myanmar military loses border trade hub, it is unclear who will assume control

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