Are Min Aung Hlaing’s days numbered?

Following a string of major military defeats in recent months, Myanmar’s junta is looking weaker now than it has at any other time since it seized power nearly three years ago. But it remains far from clear if that means it is now on its last legs, or just in desperate need of a change of leadership. While a Chinese-brokered ceasefire has given the regime a reprieve from the battering it has been subjected to by the Brotherhood Alliance since late October, this obviously won’t be enough to save it from further humiliation. In a statement released on Thursday, the ethnic alliance declared that if not for the current pause in fighting, it would now have even more towns under its control—and it’s probably right. But Operation 1027, as the ongoing anti-junta offensive has been dubbed, is not the only reason the regime is increasingly looking like a spent force. Since his ill-considered decision to overthrow Myanmar’s elected civilian government nearly three years ago, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has utterly failed to cement his hold on power in the face of fierce popular resistance. Until now, that doesn’t seem to have affected his standing within the military or among other backers of the coup. But as the third anniversary of the putsch approaches, that appears to be changing. This was reflected in rumours of an internal coup that were circulating in the regime’s administrative capital of Naypyitaw just yesterday. While those rumours proved to be untrue, there is now serious talk of a plan for Min Aung Hlaing to step down so that an interim governing body can be formed with the participation of a handful of approved political parties—most likely those that met with him earlier this month—and, of course, a number of army generals. Meanwhile, some staunch supporters of the military have begun openly calling for Min Aung Hlaing to be replaced as commander-in-chief of the armed forces by his deputy, Vice Senior General Soe Win, who is said to be directly overseeing military operations in northern Shan State. At a rally held in the army stronghold of Pyin Oo Lwin earlier this week, an ultranationalist monk and others enthusiastically endorsed the idea, even at the risk of imprisonment. And on social media, some retired military officials have publicly taunted Min Aung Hlaing for his poor leadership skills, which they blame for the military’s recent unprecedented losses. All of this points to the increasingly bleak mood in Naypyitaw, where some state employees are said to be delaying completion of their paperwork in anticipation of major changes in the coming months. What makes the military’s recent poor performance on multiple fronts all the more galling for those who believe that it has a rightful place in governing the country is the fact that it is still vastly better armed—and better financed—than all of its opponents combined. The only real advantage that the resistance forces have is the willingness of countless young people to put their lives on the line to see an end to military rule. On this score, the military falls far short, prompting Min Aung Hlaing to redouble his efforts to forcibly recruit new soldiers, some as old as 60. Even the formation of a military-backed “public militia” since the coup has done little to address the army’s manpower problems amid its heavy casualties, steady stream of defections, and mass surrenders. A recent series of reshuffles in Min Aung Hlaing’s cabinet, which saw the ouster of some of his most trusted aides, must also be taking a toll on his state of mind as he wonders if he might be next on the chopping block. While his position as the country’s military supremo may be secure for the moment, the 67-year-old dictator is undoubtedly facing the most precarious episode of his life. The question that many serving under him must now be asking themselves is whether they are prepared to continue doing so if it means going down on a sinking ship that he has sailed to a disaster of his own making. Related story https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-chief-min-aung-hlaing-reshuffles-cabinet-amid-northern-shan-state-losses/

Are Min Aung Hlaing’s days numbered?

There are growing signs that Myanmar’s military supremo could be heading for oblivion as support for his leadership falls even among backers of his coup

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