What has changed in northern Shan State since Operation 1027?

Since a China-mediated ceasefire was agreed to on January 11, months of fierce on-ground fighting has paused between the three members of the Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed organisations and the Myanmar military in northern Shan State, but tension remains high in the region where territory continues to be contested. On October 27, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) launched Operation 1027, an offensive aimed at driving the junta out of the area. Over the course of the next two months, these forces seized hundreds of junta camps and took control of several towns, including Namkham, Manton, Namhsan, Mongngawt, Monglon, Namtu, Kutkai and Hsenwi. The MNDAA reclaimed the Kokang Self-Administered Zone from the military, as did the TNLA with the Palaung Self-Administered Zone. The Brotherhood also handed over two towns in the Wa region—Hopang and Panlong—to the powerful United Wa State Army. During Operation 1027, several anti-coup resistance forces accompanied the ethnic alliance in northern Shan State, including the People's Defence Force under the publicly mandated National Unity Government (NUG), the People's Liberation Army, the Bamar People's Liberation Army, and more. The military suffered a high number of casualties during the offensive, as well as widespread captures, desertions, and surrenders among its troops. Under the conditions of the current temporary truce, the Brotherhood agreed not to attack junta-held locations in northern Shan State, and the military said it would refrain from firing artillery at or conducting airstrikes on towns occupied by the alliance. However, the TNLA accused the junta of violating the agreement days after it was agreed to by overtaking a post held by the Ta’ang forces near the entrance to the town of Kyaukme, which the military controls. Map of northern Shan State showing towns under the control of Brotherhood Alliance and under the junta (Myanmar Now) The January agreement did not apply outside of northern Shan State, such as in Rakhine and southern Chin states, where the AA and the military have continued to engage in intense ongoing clashes. The ethnic Rakhine armed group has seized control of at least six towns in the region, with the aim of taking control of more territory. Regime spokesperson Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun admitted this week that Myanmar junta officials had recently met with Brotherhood Alliance representatives in China to review the terms of the ceasefire, denying that the military had ceded any authority over territory or border trade. However, on Monday, the junta declared martial law in the TNLA-controlled towns of Namtu, Namhsan, and Manton. This move would place the administration and judiciary under the control of the junta’s Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio—northern Shan State’s largest city, and one which remains under the regime. In a statement released on Wednesday, the Brotherhood Alliance described the junta’s declaration of martial law as a threat to the current ceasefire, warning that it could create difficulties in implementing the agreement. The statement revealed that the junta and the Brotherhood engaged in at least four subsequent meetings in China, the last held from February 29 to March 1, as a follow-up to the ceasefire. The ethnic alliance noted that both sides had pledged to work towards re-opening trade routes and bringing stability to the region. https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/photo-essay-anti-junta-group-takes-full-control-of-namkham-township-in-shan-state/ Administrative shifts A ceremony marking the “liberation” of the Kokang region from the Myanmar army was held on February 9, hosted by the MNDAA and attended by TNLA and AA leadership, as well as the NUG’s defence minister, among other resistance representatives. The MNDAA has since announced the need for a larger workforce in its territory, encouraging employment agencies to recruit labourers and technicians to rebuild the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, centred around the city of Laukkai on the Chinese border. Not welcome, MNDAA spokesperson Li Kyar Win said last month, would be individuals with any connection to the junta. “We are gradually starting operations and people of any ethnicity are welcome to work here, if they have a clean political background,” he told Myanmar Now, adding that despite rumours otherwise, people from the Bamar ethnic majority could also settle in the Kokang region. TNLA representatives told Myanmar Now in January that they had started setting up their own governance operations in seven towns they had seized, providing training to those working in the General Administration Department and the police force. Included were former civil servants who had left their roles after the 2021 coup as part of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) aimed at toppling the junta. Locals have said that they are not yet accustomed to the TNLA’s processes, but that there have been announcements that there will be new departments of security, general administration, police, and the judiciary set up at the district, township, ward, and village levels. A resident of one of the towns in question, Namhsan, told Myanmar Now that a committee had been formed to repair buildings damaged in the fighting, including a monastery and the local hospital. “There is a lot of rehabilitation to be done. Some are doing it on their own,” he said. Around 70 percent of those who fled the clashes in Namhsan are believed to have returned to their homes, according to local sources, as they have in another northern Shan State town, Namkham. “The administration is running normally,” said a man from Namkham, noting that TNLA representatives had already discussed their plans with local elders. “Everything is bustling again.” The ethnic armed organisations have faced—and denied—allegations of forcibly recruiting troops during Operation 1027, and displacing locals. Days prior to the junta’s announcement that it would be enforcing a conscription law, the TNLA released their own conscription measures, while the MNDAA has been known to be actively recruiting more troops in its areas of operation. “People are fleeing here and there out of fear,” a woman in Lashio said, referring to fears of being forced to fight for the military or the ethnic armed organisations. “They don't even know where to go or where they can find safety anymore.” There are an estimated 80,000 internally displaced persons throughout northern Shan State, according to data compiled by the Ta'ang Women's Organisation, which also recorded the deaths of 150 people in junta artillery and aerial attacks during Operation 1027, and another 200 who were injured. “There are also many other human rights violations. There must be many more incidents that we haven’t received information about,” a spokesperson for the group said, noting the poor state of communications infrastructure in the region. https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-acknowledges-follow-up-meeting-on-ceasefire-with-brotherhood-alliance/ Contested territory During the first week of January, the TNLA drove the military out of Kutkai, seizing the bases of Infantry Battalions 241, 242, 45 and Artillery Battalion 247, and setting up their own administration. However, multiple ethnic armed organisations are active in the township, including the AA, MNDAA, and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). On February 4, one day ahead of the annual Kachin Revolution Day, tensions with the TNLA rose when some 50 KIA troops reportedly set up new camps in Kutkai town and, accompanied by ethnic Kachin locals, raised the flags of the KIA at the sites and along the main highway in the area. The next day, the TNLA was said to have taken the flags down. The local Kutkai Kachin Courier Group issued a statement on February 6 condemning the move by the TNLA. A woman from Kutkai told Myanmar Now that the Ta’ang troops acted aggressively and used “harsh words” during the confrontation. “They said that they fought for that area and they won,” she said, noting that the town’s population is diverse, and its administration must be inclusive of different ethnicities as well as former civil servants who went on strike in accordance with the CDM. Myanmar Now was unable to make contact with the TNLA’s information officers to obtain comment on the situation in Kutkai. The KIA has a base in Ward 1 of Kutkai town, a communications office established in 2015, as well as posts in schools in Wards 6 and 7. The organisation’s Brigade 4 operates in the township, and the ethnic armed organisation also seized the Kutkai village tract of Namphetka in recent months, as well as the town of Mabein. TNLA-controlled Kutkai town in northern Shan State pictured on January 13 (Myat Pan / Myanmar Now) Remaining junta strongholds The military has maintained control over the towns of Nawnghkio, Mongmit, Kyaukme and Hsipaw, as well as Lashio and Muse, which have been surrounded by the Brotherhood Alliance. All are located along the main roads and highways connecting Mandalay with northern Shan State. In addition to the Northeastern Regional Military Command, multiple battalions are based in Lashio. Since the northern Shan State ceasefire, junta troops in the town have reportedly been extorting money from civilians, a local woman said. “Boys on motorbikes are stopped and checked, and cars are stopped and checked,” she told Myanmar Now, referring to actions taken by Myanmar army soldiers who seize vehicles and then demand money for their return. To the north, Muse is the only town along Shan State’s border with China over which the junta has retained control, while the Brotherhood Alliance has claimed the critical 105-mile trade zone nearby. The military has blocked the town’s exit, which leads to the trade area, forcing residents to use other roads, some of which have been mined. Robberies, kidnappings, and shootings have reportedly been on the rise in Muse, and around half of the town’s population has fled. The cost of basic commodities has risen as well, including rice, which has quadrupled in price. The townships of Kutkai, Hsenwi, Namtu, and Manton rely on Lashio for food, medicine, and fuel—all of which are restricted by the military. The destruction of at least five strategic bridges by both the military and the Brotherhood Alliance in Lashio, Hsenwi, and Hsipaw has contributed to difficulties surrounding transportation and trade, and the adoption of alternative—and often more costly and dangerous—travel routes through the region. Due to road closures and blockades, a bus from Muse to Mandalay which would have previously cost up to 40,000 kyat (less than US$20) is now priced as high as 300,000 kyat (more than $140). “The fighting has caused transportation to be cut off, making life very difficult for the people,” a local woman said. “They are having a very hard time.”

What has changed in northern Shan State since Operation 1027?

In the aftermath of Operation 1027, locals grapple with insecurity as tension between Myanmar military and anti-junta ethnic armed organisations persists

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