Arakan Army signals openness to dialogue as it takes 14th Rakhine State town

The powerful ethnic armed group Arakan Army (AA) released statements on Sunday expressing interest in a ‘political’ resolution to its conflict with the Myanmar military and announcing its capture of the town of Gwa, Rakhine State. Gwa is the administrative seat of Rakhine State’s southernmost township, and the 14th of the state’s 17 township-level urban centres to fall under the group’s control. The AA—also sometimes called ‘Arakha Army’ after a rebrand in April reflecting its purported mission to represent all ethnic groups in Rakhine State—has also taken full control of Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh. Having taken over Gwa, the AA signalled its readiness to negotiate with Myanmar’s military junta. “We always remain open to resolving the current internal issues through political means rather than military solutions,” the group said in its first press release on Sunday. The AA also emphasised its recognition of the “Haigeng Agreement,” a ceasefire mediated by Chinese officials in January 2024 between the Myanmar military and Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed groups. “We worked tirelessly to reach the ‘Haigeng Agreement’,” the AA statement said. Although the AA is one of the three member groups of the Brotherhood Alliance, it previously treated the Haigeng Agreement as applying only to northern Shan State where the other two allied groups are based. The ceasefire did not take effect in Rakhine State, where the AA has fought continuously with the Myanmar military since November 2023. “It’s politically savvy of the ULA/AA to mention China and the Haigeng Agreement with such prominence,” said David Mathieson, an independent analyst of Myanmar’s affairs. “It is certainly sending a strong message to Beijing that the AA are a rational actor that is capable of doing a deal, and cooperating with not just China but also other neighbouring countries.” Development projects in Rakhine State have attracted substantial investment from China and other foreign sources. Construction of a high-valued, Chinese-backed deep-sea port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) has long been underway in the state’s Kyaukphyu Township, with investment from South Korea and India also respectively supporting a major offshore natural gas project and multi-modal transport system in the state. The AA has pledged to safeguard foreign investments and development projects in Rakhine State, as well as protect the safety of foreign nationals employed in these ventures. The group has also made clear that it intends to cooperate with and seek mutually beneficial conditions for the projects’ continuation. “China always exerts its influence especially on ethnic armed groups, near its border,” said Pe Than, a Rakhine political analyst and former member of the state’s parliament. “But in the case of AA, there might be room for discussion and negotiation because nearly all Chinese businesses in Rakhine State are under the protection of AA.” Regarding AA’s statement, some analysts inside Myanmar also argued that political negotiations in Rakhine State can proceed only after hostilities cease. They pointed to blockades preventing the transport of medicines and other essential commodities in Rakhine State; to ongoing, indiscriminate bombing by junta forces; and to the military’s training and co-optation of criminal and extremist groups in the state as part of a “divide and conquer” strategy by the junta. Others suggested that political dialogue are unlikely to succeed in ending the conflict, citing the precedent of negotiations between the military regime and anti-regime forces in northern Shan State. “Discussions between the MNDAA and the military council have never yielded any results, and no decisions have been made,” said political analyst Than Soe Naing, referring to one of the Arakan Army’s northern Shan State-based allies. “So, the AA will also continue to pursue its own objectives.” In its second public statement on Sunday, the AA announced its takeover of Gwa on Rakhine State’s boundary with Ayeyarwady Region after two weeks of fighting. The seizure of Gwa came soon after the AA completed its takeover of the garrison town of Ann, the location of the Myanmar military’s Western Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters, on December 20. Clashes were ongoing in Gwa Township despite the capture of its administrative centre, according to the AA statement, and the military regime has continued deploying reinforcements in a bid to retake the town. “We are still pursuing junta soldiers who retreated from Gwa. The military regime has carried out airstrikes as well as shelling from warships,” said Khaing Thukha, the AA’s spokesperson. The capture of the town of Gwa and the Western RMC by the Arakan Army severed supply lines between Rakhine State and central Myanmar's Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions. The military has responded by tightening security, sending reinforcements, and strengthening its defences in the neighbouring Ayeyarwady Region to contain the spread of fighting. Only three townships now remain under the control of the military regime in Rakhine State: the state capital of Sittwe, the coastal township of Kyaukphyu, and the island township of Manaung, several miles off Rakhine State’s mainland shore in the Bay of Bengal. While noting the advantage the AA would enjoy in negotiations after its sweeping takeover of most of the state, David Mathieson said it was not certain what the group’s demands would be. “The big question will be how much the AA continues its cooperation with other anti-SAC forces,” he said, referring to the armed resistance and other groups fighting the junta. “It’s more than likely the AA’s strategy is still to see the end of Myanmar military rule.”However, he acknowledged that the outcome would depend heavily on the influence of China, which has recently lent increasing diplomatic and other support to the military regime. “The nod to China also illustrates clearly that other diplomatic efforts to address the crisis have utterly failed,” Mathieson added. “The West is now a bystander to the Myanmar revolution.”

Arakan Army signals openness to dialogue as it takes 14th Rakhine State town

Having seized all but three Rakhine State townships in an offensive against the Myanmar junta, the Arakan Army (AA) has now suggested pursuing a ‘political’ solution, citing its past participation in Chinese-brokered negotiations between the military and the AA’s allies

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