As Myanmar’s brutal civil war continues to rage, an unexpected force has entered the battlefield: nature’s wrath.
A powerful earthquake recently struck the country, hitting Sagaing and Mandalay regions the hardest, killing thousands and shaking an already fragile landscape where resistance fighters battle the junta into an expanse of pure chaos. But beyond the destruction, could this seismic shift alter the trajectory of the war itself?
Myanmar Now spoke with resistance figures in Sagaing and Mandalay, as well as in surrounding Karenni, Shan, and Chin states, to understand the mindset of the resistance after the catastrophe. As the scale of the disaster emerges, sources say it will inevitably have social, political, and military implications. At the same time, resistance leaders say they are furious, but unsurprised, at how the military is continuing to kill civilians even as the country attempts to pick itself up from total disaster.
“In this region, even before the earthquake, the junta was already carrying out daily offensives—burning villages and committing massacres,” Ko Ba Hein, a senior member of a People’s Defence (PDF) Force group in Monywa, Sagaing Region, told Myanmar Now.
And even as the ground still trembles with aftershocks and survivors claw through the rubble, the junta continues its relentless assault: bombarding villages, hunting resistance fighters, and showing no mercy to civilians already crushed by nature.
“There was already a disaster in place. But the earthquake just made things worse,” Ko Ba Hein said. “For the resistance forces, no matter how dire the situation, we believe we must continue our work.”
‘The junta will take advantage of the disaster’
Under the blistering summer sun, a group of earthquake survivors stood motionless as the distant roar of a helicopter echoed through a village in Magway Region on March 29.
According to a resistance source from the Sagaing Forum, a network of local pro-democracy groups and members of the anti-junta Civil Disobedience Movement, a particularly grim event was about to take shape.
In Magway’s Pauk Township, an area already battered by conflict and now wracked by the quake, a group of displaced civilians were desperately trying to pull survivors from the wreckage of collapsed homes. The structures, poorly built and never meant to withstand an earthquake, had crumbled under the strain of the earth’s shifting seismic movements.
Minutes passed, and the desperation became more tense.
Then, the group of civilians noticed a helicopter in the distance. Hope surged. The group wondered: Maybe it is a rescue team, maybe help has finally arrived. Exhausted and desperate, they ran toward it.
But the helicopter wasn’t there to save them. It opened fire. And instead, the people who had rushed toward rescue were left scattering for their lives. Two people were killed in the incident.
“On our side, we have declared a temporary ceasefire out of concern for civilians,” Ko Ba Hein said. “But the military has not done the same. Even as the earthquake was happening, they continued their attacks.”
The same kind of deadly airstrikes are taking place all over Myanmar.
Although the scope of the devastation is becoming more evident across junta-controlled Mandalay and Naypyitaw, reports indicate that parts of Sagaing Region may have been hit even worse. As the country’s second-largest city and capital receive most of the world’s attention, many smaller towns and villages have been completely overlooked.
In southern Shan State’s Nyaungshwe Township, the earthquake brought down entire communities, wrecking buildings and sending homes toppling into Inle Lake, killing some 90 people. Yet while the resistance forces have put their guns down to roll out rescue efforts, the junta has continued to carry out repeated attacks across southern Shan State
“In Pa-O territory, junta strikes are occurring daily. They happened before and again today, days after the earthquake,” Khun Myint Tun, the chair of the Pa-O National Federal Council and former chair of the Pa-O National Liberation Organisation (PNLO), told Myanmar Now.
In southern Shan State, the military has seized much of the civilian equipment, including bulldozers, needed to clear rubble and rescue victims from collapsed buildings. Without these tools, they are left with no means of helping those trapped in the wreckage, Khun Myint Tun explained.
He added that near Naung Htong, a village just south of the town of Hsihseng, civilians were forced to flee for their lives as artillery shells and bombs dropped from drones rained down on them a day after the quake.
The account was corroborated by General Khun Aung Man of the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLA), the military arm of the PNLO.
“In our controlled area, on the Hsihseng and Mawk Mai side, there have been no airstrikes after the earthquake,” he told Myanmar Now. “However, drone and artillery attacks happen every day. They are attacking civilian homes and markets.”
‘Psychologically it is affecting us’
In neighbouring Karenni State, it’s a similar story.
Resistance sources told Myanmar Now that while they have temporarily paused their offensives, some by two weeks, others by a full month, the junta has not pulled back from their ruthless campaign of death.
Maui, the deputy commander-in-chief of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), shared that his men and women feel a sense of helplessness as they watch the disaster unfold, but are unable to assist the victims.
“If the country was stable, then we could all face this natural disaster together,” he said. “We could respond to it very well, because we have a lot of young people, a lot of professionals, and we have the resources for everyone to come help the earthquake victims.”
He added that they feel deeply saddened for the civilians affected. While they want to help, many within the Karenni resistance have no opportunity to do so as the epicentre is out of reach, far from their own territory. On top of this, he said, the junta has been bombing KNDF-controlled areas repeatedly since the quake.
“So, psychologically it is affecting us, too,” he said, adding that the quake would no doubt impact the revolution, as the regime would attempt to take advantage of the situation politically and militarily.
Even after declaring a ceasefire nearly a week after the earthquake, the regime has continued to carry out airstrikes and other military operations against groups opposed to its rule.
This came days after the National Unity Government and allied ethnic armed organisations pledged to temporarily suspend their attacks on junta positions, as the death count from the quake climbed into the thousands.
But while the regime’s belated attempt to assuage critics of its fixation on finishing off its enemies may have some impact on international observers, it is unlikely to win over the people of Myanmar. Most recognise that the junta, led by Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, is only capable of compounding their suffering.
“Most of the older generations of Burmese believe in omens,” Tha Eh Soe, a KNDF spokesperson, told Myanmar Now. “They have a saying: ‘If a bad ruler controls the country, bad things will happen to the nation under them.’ And many people believe this [earthquake] is because of Min Aung Hlaing, because we know he rules the country through terror. That’s why people believe the horrors of these things are happening as a result of him.”
‘A warning from the universe’
Much has been reported on the perceived spiritual omens or signs that the earthquake may have sent a signal to the military’s top brass. But many of the younger generation of resistance fighters feel the earthquake shouldn’t be examined in this light.
“Throughout Myanmar’s history, natural disasters such as famine or drought, or earthquake or meteor showers, those things are seen as a warning from the gods, or a warning from the universe, or a message to the unjust rulers,” Salai Yaw Mang, spokesperson of the Chin Brotherhood, told Myanmar Now. “So these were always interpreted as bad omens throughout Myanmar history.”
But, he explained, most of his young fighters are more pragmatic in their thinking. Having learned about the Sagaing Fault, a zone that is prone to earthquakes, many young rebels disregard the superstitions of their parents and grandparents. He says he and other resistance commanders are currently more focused on how the quake could change the landscape of war, and how they can help injured or displaced people.
“No one could have predicted this, and we could have handled it better, and the SAC can and should do better,” he said, referring to regime, which calls itself the State Administration Council. “But we know they are just ruthless and don’t care about people.”
The earthquake has significantly altered battlefield conditions, he also pointed out. The regime faces major setbacks, with damaged airports grounding planes and fighter jets, and severed communication lines disrupting their operations.
In Chin State, where Salai Yaw Mang is based, very little damage occurred. But even here, the impact of the quake is being felt, he said.
“I think the earthquake could alter battlefield conditions in significant ways. For the rebels and PDFs, we don’t rely heavily on roads or commute as much as the SAC. We’re quite mobile and quite resourceful. And we don’t operate on a large scale.”
He also pointed out that the junta’s lack of empathy for victims of the earthquake, especially those outside of Mandalay and Naypyitaw, could push more civilians to join the resistance. And like others, he pointed out that the primary truth in the wake of the disaster is the cruelty of the junta’s ongoing airstrike campaign.
“Even now, just this afternoon, we were bombed twice,” Salai Yaw Mang said. “And I’m not even surprised. I don’t really believe in these omens, but right now for me, we want to provide as much help as we can and just assist the victims.”
While the junta regards the catastrophe as a means of consolidating control and extracting foreign aid, resistance forces see an opportunity to strengthen their ties with local communities by leading relief efforts. But as the military escalates airstrikes and repression, the question remains: Will this disaster galvanise the resistance, or force them into an even more difficult war.
Back in Sagaing Region, Ko Ba Hein is still in a state of disbelief, contemplating how the junta has responded to the disaster.
On the one hand, the military is performing a dance for the international community in an effort to bring in as much relief funding as possible. But on the other, it is continuing to kill and maim civilians, even as it couches its appeals to the United Nations and foreign governments in the language of humanitarianism.
It’s unclear what will happen in terms of the revolution in the coming weeks. But what is clear is that as the ground shakes, the bombs keep falling.
“You might not believe this, but in Padou, a village near the epicentre of the 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Mandalay, there was no earthquake damage at all,” Ko Ba Hein said. “Why? Because the military had already burned down the entire village before the earthquake even struck.”
