Weekly Newsletter June 12, 2026

What to watch for in Myanmar Regime offensives around the country have continued to claim lives, mostly of civilians. The most gruesome case reported this week was related to a series of raids carried out near Bagan, Myanmar’s ancient capital and a UNESCO-listed World Heritage Site, late last month. Rescue workers discovered at least 31 bodies, many unrecognisable, in Magway’s Pakokku Township, opposite Bagan on the banks of the Ayeyarwady River. Many were residents too old or infirm to flee advancing junta columns; some sheltered in monasteries, believing soldiers wouldn’t desecrate them with their violence. Unfortunately, they were wrong. (Observers noted that as this killing spree unfolded, Min Aung Hlaing was in India, proving his Buddhist bona fides with a pilgrimage to Bodh Gaya as part of his week-long visit.) That trip may have done little to heighten the junta chief’s sense of the sanctity of human life, but it did inspire him in other ways. In Sagaing Region, he has decided to take another stab at retaking the Kalay-Tamu road, a key section of the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, as per promises made in New Delhi. And near Pyin Oo Lwin, it moved him to evict residents supposedly encroaching on the Yadanabon New City, a development project of potential interest to Indian investors. Meanwhile, civilian sites, such as hospitals and IDP camps, remain a favourite target of the regime as it looks to impose a heavy price on public support for resistance to its rule. But while few areas are spared these seemingly random attacks, which often take place far from active combat zones, it is becoming increasingly clear that the west is where the junta has set its sights as it looks to expand on its gains elsewhere. This includes Chin State, where it continues its offensives in both the north and the south. Ultimately, however, the real prize is Rakhine State, where it has suffered its heaviest losses in recent years. For now, the regime must content itself with punishing civilians for the Arakan Army’s military successes; but it may be hoping it can turn the tide in the coming months by massing its forces along Magway Region’s border with both Chin and Rakhine states as part of a grand strategy to reclaim the west. But the junta will be hard-pressed to reverse the AA’s gains, as it did those of its allies in northern Shan State, without China putting its thumb on the scales. Even the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, which has given up much of the territory it has captured over the past two and a half years, says it will hold on to what it still has.

Weekly Newsletter June 12, 2026

What to watch for in Myanmar

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What to watch for in Myanmar

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