As the Myanmar junta’s previous round of six-month extensions for its state of emergency expires on Monday, observers and the public are waiting on coup leader Min Aung Hlaing’s next move.
The military declared a year-long state of emergency when it seized power over two-and-a-half years ago and has since extended it three times, each for six months. The most recent extension took place in February this year when the regime’s National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) said the situation in the country had “not returned to normalcy yet”.
Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing had hinted that his regime might further extend a state of emergency and delay promised elections at a meeting with his senior officials on July 14, citing continued unrest in the country.
The military-drafted 2008 Constitution, which the regime has been using to justify its actions, allows only two six-month extensions. The charter requires authorities to hold fresh elections within six months of a state of emergency being lifted.
Some pro-regime news outlets have reported that the NDSC meeting was held at around 10am in Naypyitaw on Monday and that the military council did in fact extend the state of emergency for six more months. The military had made no official announcement at the time of reporting.
Results are expected to be announced later that day. Military insiders speculated that vice president Myint Swe, who is also the regime’s acting president and leads the NDSC, might not be in attendance at the meeting as he has been “severely ill.” Another vice president, Henry Van Thio, has not been in the public eye since the army’s seizure of power and had never attended such meetings, citing “health issues.” He was rumoured to be at the Monday meeting.
The 11-member NDSC body is prescribed by the military-drafted Constitution to include the president, two vice-presidents, two house speakers, the commander-in-chief and his deputy, and the ministers of foreign affairs, defence, home affairs, and border affairs.
While Upper House speaker Mahn Win Khaing Than became the prime minister of the shadow National Unity Government after the 2021 coup, Lower House speaker T Khun Myat, has been in NDSC meetings endorsing the extensions of military rule.
Although the NDSC council holds some executive powers of the state, its structure gave military-controlled members majority representation even when Myanmar was under a civilian government.
Pro-regime outlets have been speculating that the military would form an interim body with retired generals if an extension of junta rule does not happen.
The speculations are based on the junta’s recent moves concerning the situation of detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi against the backdrop of nationwide popular armed resistance that his regime has been struggling to quell.
In early July, outgoing Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai announced that he had met with Suu Kyi, making him the first foreign diplomat to see her since her arrest on the day of the coup. Observers warned that the regime would be employing an old trick—using her image to create a divide between pro-democracy activists. Weeks later, reports came out that Suu Kyi had been moved from prison to house arrest in Naypyitaw and had reportedly met with T Khun Myat.
The expiration of Min Aung Hlaing’s last extension also coincides with the opening ceremony of his giant Buddha statue in Naypyitaw, which will be held on Tuesday, the full moon day of Warso on the Buddhist Calendar, and marking the beginning of Buddhist lent. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing will be holding a massive ceremony to commemorate the giant statue and has invited all of his senior officials and other guests.
There are also unconfirmed reports that Min Aung Hlaing will announce an amnesty for political prisoners en masse, as well as Suu Kyi’s reported transfer to house arrest, in order to mark the consecration of the new giant Buddha image on that day. It is also speculated that two other leaders from her deposed cabinet—ousted president Win Myint and Mandalay Region chief minister Zaw Myint Maung—could also be transferred to house arrest.
