Arakan Army takes last junta outpost on Bangladesh-Myanmar border

The Arakan Army (AA) announced on Sunday that its members had finally taken over the last uncaptured Border Guard Police (BGP) base on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, located in Rakhine State’s Maungdaw Township. “On December 8 at 9:30am, the AA successfully captured and neutralised the last remaining outpost of the military junta,” spokespersons for Rakhine State’s most powerful ethnic armed group said in a press release. Due to its importance for controlling the border, the AA and junta forces have been fighting over the now-captured outpost, known as BGP-5, for months. The group’s spokespersons added that an “indefinite ban” was now in effect against boat travel on the Rakhine State side of the Naf River, which forms part of the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Junta troops and pro-junta Rohingya militia members have been trying to flee to Bangladesh across the river, AA members said, adding that they were still in pursuit of enemy fighters after capturing the BGP-5 base. “Due to military necessity and concerns for public safety, all travel on the Naf River will be indefinitely suspended starting from 3:30pm on December 8,” the group said, adding, “They are retreating from the area but still carrying out ambushes. Clashes are have continued near the BGP-5 base and other parts of the township as a result.” In May and August, tens of thousands of Rohingya civilians fled towards the Bangladeshi border from Buthidaung and Maungdaw, where Rohingya Muslim people have traditionally made up the majority. The displaced Rohingya said they were fleeing from the spreading violence in those townships, as the AA was allegedly targeting them in retaliation for Rohingya people joining—or being forcibly recruited into—pro-junta armed groups. Fighting between the AA and junta troops in ongoing in Ann, Taungup, and Gwa townships as well as Maungdaw Township. Last November, the AA launched a large-scale offensive in Rakhine State in coordination with the Operation 1027 campaign initiated by its fellow Brotherhood Alliance members based in northern Shan State: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Since resuming offensive operations against the Myanmar military just over a year ago, the AA has captured the administrative centres of more than half of Rakhine State’s 17 townships. The territory under AA control now includes not only the townships on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border but also most of Ann Township, the location of the Myanmar military’s Western Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters. In August, the military regime lost another regional headquarters—the Northeastern RMC in Lashio, northern Shan State—to the MNDAA, one of the AA’s allies, temporarily prompting calls even among the military regime’s supporters for junta chief Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing to step down from his position. The AA claimed last Friday that it had seized some 30 junta bases in the environs of Ann, Rakhine State, besieging the Western RMC and cutting off supplies and reinforcements in the military’s garrison. The territory now comprising Rakhine State was home to a separately ruled kingdom that fell under Burmese dominion in the 18th century. The stated goal of the AA, which is made up of a predominantly Rakhine Buddhist membership, is broader autonomy for Rakhine State within Myanmar. The fight for control of Rakhine State Despite the relative quiet prevailing in Rakhine State’s administrative capital of Sittwe and the Chinese-backed Special Economic Zone in Kyaukphyu Township, clashes have only escalated in Ann Township and around the military headquarters located there in recent weeks. In addition to serving as the command centre for the military’s operations in both Rakhine and Chin states, Ann Township is strategically located on Rakhine State’s border with Magway Region, home to manufacturing facilities on which the military depends for its arms supplies. Pe Than, an analyst and retired Rakhine State politician, predicts that the military will lost most of Rakhine State if it fails to hold Ann Township. “When Ann falls, junta forces in all of Rakhine State will be incapacitated. Like a body without the head,” he said, noting that Kyaukphyu and Sittwe are currently surrounded by AA forces, making it impossible for residents to even venture outside those towns. “I think they will approach carefully so as not to harm civilians or put anyone’s investments at risk there,” Pe Than said, referring to the AA, which has yet to launch attacks on Kyaukphyu. The armed group may be holding back to avoid provoking the ire of foreign—especially Chinese—investors in the Kyaukphyu development projects. However, when asked about Chinese pressure on the AA, Pe Than was sceptical that it would be decisive. “I think it is almost impossible for China to pressure the Arakha Army,” he said, using a name that the Arakan Army began to use for itself as part of an attempted rebrand last year. He noted that the AA is operating much farther from China, in contrast to its allies, the MNDAA and TNLA, which are based in township’s near the Chinese border and reliant on revenue from cross-border trade. “If the MNDAA and the TNLA refuse to listen to China, they are likely to face repercussions on the border,” he said, whereas China does not have the same leverage over the AA. Following its losses of territory, Pe Than believes the Myanmar military has little recourse but to make the most of its advantage on the water, deploying naval forces to hold onto Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. However, he speculated that the junta forces’ likeliest next manoeuvre would be either a major counteroffensive to retake ground or a gradual, strategic retreat. “It is either they retreat gradually or choose to engage in a major fight. In 2025, that will be the scenario in these two locations,” he told Myanmar Now. “But the outcome will take a long time,” he added. Kyaukphyu is home to a variety of potentially lucrative development projects backed by Chinese investment, such as a deep-sea port that is currently under construction as part of a larger, Special Economic Zone development project intended to facilitate the movement of good from the Rakhine State coast to Myanmar’s interior. The Chinese state-owned entity CITIC holds a 70-percent, controlling stake in the project, with Myanmar junta authorities owning the remaining 30 percent. “Their only option is to mediate between the military junta and AA for their interests as well as ours,” Pe Than said, referring to Chinese investors and officials. “If they can help us achieve our desired confederation—to govern our own state—through their mitigation, the AA is likely to listen,” he continued, adding, “However, the AA’s ultimate goal is to purge the military’s troops from Rakhine State. The AA won’t allow negotiations about that.”

Arakan Army takes last junta outpost on Bangladesh-Myanmar border

Having fully occupied all territory between Paletwa and Maungdaw townships, the AA now controls Myanmar’s entire 168-mile border with Bangladesh and continues to press in on the army’s regional command headquarters in Rakhine State’s Ann Township

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