Wa, Kokang armies expected to join junta peace talks as ethnic groups press political demands

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the Kokang Army, are expected to join the Myanmar junta’s 100-day peace initiative in August, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The planned meetings would follow recent talks between the regime’s National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the Brotherhood Alliance and an ally of both the UWSA and MNDAA. Sources close to the ethnic armed groups said the UWSA and MNDAA are expected to meet junta representatives in Naypyitaw, where the TNLA talks were also held last weekend. They also said Chinese officials urged the MNDAA to participate in negotiations during a meeting in Kunming in late June. The expected talks come as the junta seeks to advance a peace initiative originally slated to last until July 31, during which it has invited both signatories and non-signatories to previous ceasefire agreements for dialogue while excluding the People’s Defence Force (PDF) and other anti-junta resistance groups, which it has instead called on to surrender. The MNDAA emerged as one of the biggest winners of Operation 1027, the major offensive launched by the Brotherhood Alliance in late 2023. The group seized several towns across northern Shan State, including Lashio, Laukkai, Hsenwi, Kunlong, Chin Shwe Haw, Konkyan, Pang Hseng, Mongko, and Tamoenye. In March, the MNDAA also took control of Kutkai from the TNLA and reorganised its territory into four administrative districts—Laukkai, Hsenwi, Kutkai, and Mongko—under the name “Special Region (1).” According to sources close to the group, discussions with the junta are expected to focus on the withdrawal of MNDAA forces from the Muse-Hsipaw trade corridor, cross-border trade, and the status of Special Region (1). The junta has repeatedly demanded that MNDAA troops withdraw from positions along the strategic highway. The UWSA, which expanded its territory during Operation 1027 by taking control of two towns, is also expected to raise its long-standing demand for formal recognition of a Wa State, according to sources familiar with the preparations. Members of the TNLA conduct military training in northern Shan State in March 2023 (Photo: AFP) TNLA seeks Ta'ang State The junta and the TNLA held their first formal talks since the 2021 military coup in Naypyitaw on July 19. The meeting was attended by NSPNC chair Lt.-Gen. Yar Pyae, secretary Lt.-Gen. Min Naing, and other committee members. The TNLA delegation was led by the group’s vice chairp, Lt.-Gen. Tar Jok Jar. Sources close to participants confirmed the authenticity of records from the meeting that were recently circulated on social media. According to those records, the TNLA’s principal demand was the creation of a Ta’ang State within Myanmar, while remaining part of the Union under the 2008 Constitution. The group also requested greater regional development, improved education, and measures to reduce the impact of armed conflict, while expressing a willingness to cooperate with the junta on peace efforts. The junta reportedly responded that any changes to state or regional boundaries must comply with the 2008 Constitution. Officials said the creation of an autonomous region requires the merger of two townships where the relevant ethnic group comprises more than half of the population, while full statehood could only be pursued through parliamentary procedures. In its official statement, the junta said the meeting focused on implementing the China-mediated Haigeng Agreement, maintaining ceasefires, and pursuing political solutions through dialogue. It said the two sides also discussed education, health care, regional development, transportation and the 100-day peace initiative, but made no mention of the TNLA’s demand for statehood. Brotherhood Alliance leaders attend a ceremony on February 9, 2024 marking the MNDAA’s capture of the entire Kokang region (Photo: Brotherhood Alliance) Analysts sceptical Political observers said the junta’s outreach appears aimed at reducing fighting with powerful ethnic armed organisations while concentrating military resources against resistance forces in central Myanmar. Veteran political analyst Than Soe Naing said the TNLA was approached first because it is currently weaker than other major ethnic armed groups. “The military is trying to restrain stronger groups through conciliation while focusing on controlling central Myanmar,” he said. Former army captain Zin Yaw, who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement after defecting from Myanmar’s military, said the junta may be willing to offer limited concessions on ethnic political demands as long as they remain within the framework of the 2008 Constitution. He said the military could consider establishing a Palaung (Ta’ang) State centred on Namhsan and Mantong if doing so helps prevent the TNLA from strengthening ties with anti-junta resistance forces. The TNLA has long described a proposed Ta’ang State as encompassing Namhsan, Mantong, Mogok, Momeik, Mabein, Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Namtu, Kutkai, Lashio, Muse, and Namkham. Although the group captured most of those areas during Operation 1027, it has since lost several towns following military offensives and Chinese-mediated agreements. It currently maintains control of Namtu, Namkham, Namhsan, and Mantong townships, as well as the towns of Mongngawt and Monglon in Kyaukme Township. The TNLA has not publicly specified which areas it formally requested to be included in a future Ta’ang State. The group's spokesperson, Lway Yay Oo, did not respond to requests for comment. Analysts said creating a new state under Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution would require constitutional amendments approved by more than 75% of the Union Parliament, including support from military-appointed lawmakers, followed by a national referendum and consultations with local residents. Those constitutional requirements also present significant obstacles to the UWSA’s long-standing demand for Wa Statehood. Other ethnic organisations have also raised political demands during recent contacts with the junta. On June 4, the political wing of the Shanni Nationalities Army met the junta’s peace committee in Naypyitaw and requested the establishment of an ethnic Shanni autonomous region encompassing parts of Kachin State and Sagaing Region. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has invited ethnic armed groups to participate in peace talks by July 31, but has said the PDF and other resistance groups aligned with the National Unity Government will not be included and must instead surrender.

Wa, Kokang armies expected to join junta peace talks as ethnic groups press political demands

The talks, aimed at stabilising northern Shan State as the junta continues its offensives elsewhere, will include the groups’ calls for statehood and territorial recognition

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