TNLA steadily losing ground before scheduled ceasefire talks in China

In the last weeks before planned ceasefire talks, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is losing ground to junta forces on the battlefield, adding to the diplomatic pressure to lay down arms that the Chinese government has exerted for months. Spokespersons for the TNLA—an ethnically Palaung or Ta’ang armed group and member of the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance—confirmed in a public statement on Tuesday that the group’s representatives will meet with junta officials in Kunming, Yunnan Province for Chinese-brokered peace talks at the end of August. The TNLA’s demands in the talks will concern protection of civilians, passage through territories under the control of their fighters, and the cessation of junta airstrikes within TNLA-held areas. “There is continuous involvement and pressure from the Chinese government,” the Ta’ang group’s spokesperson said. “Recently, there has been pressure from the Chinese government’s side for us not to engage in battle,” she continued. “If the Chinese government calls for meetings and discussions, we cannot escape the Chinese government’s pressure, so we have to go. We will cooperate as much as possible in the meetings and discussions.” The TNLA spokesperson also warned that if the junta’s demands are too exacting, the talks will end at an impasse and will serve no constructive purpose. The outcome of the talks would depend on the course of the negotiations and was still uncertain, she added. Pressure on the TNLA has mounted with the group’s loss of Nawnghkio, northern Shan State—a town the group had controlled since last year—and the junta air force’s subsequent attacks on the TNLA-held towns of Hispaw and Kyaukme in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region’s Mogok. The TNLA claims to be the only ethnic armed group continuing to fight the junta in northern Shan State, since fellow Brotherhood Alliance member the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army started observing a ceasefire with the junta. The third member of the alliance—the Arakan Army—has taken over territory from the military in Rakhine and Chin states in Myanmar’s west. When Agence Free Press asked Chinese government officials about their country’s influence on affairs in northern Shan State at a regular press conference in April of this year, officials answered that they adhere to a policy of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, only providing support and assistance in response to critical needs. Answering queries about the loss of Nawnghkio, the TNLA spokesperson said the armed group had learned from the defeat, and was analysing its own weaknesses to make corrections and improvements. She offered no comment regarding claims that the armed group had lost territory due to miscalculations regarding troop deployment or poor relations with certain ethnic groups in the territories it controlled. “There’s nothing to comment on,” he said. “We will continue to develop our strengths and correct our weaknesses.” A previous round of ceasefire negotiations in late April of this year—also brokered by China and held in Kunming—ended without an agreement after the TNLA rejected the Myanmar junta generals’ demand to relinquish control of five towns under its control: Nawnghkio, Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Momeik, and Mogok. During the two phases of Operation 1027, the sweeping offensive against the military conducted by the Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State in 2023 and 2024, the TNLA took control of these five towns as well as Namkham, Manton, Namtu, Kutkai, Monglon, Mongngawt, and Namhsan. The group established its own administrative apparatus in the towns under its control. Junta troops in battle near Ho Hke (Hke Hteik) village (Photo: Telegram) The displaced Some 5,000 civilians have fled their homes ahead of the junta advance from the garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay Region and Nawnghkio, which the military captured in mid-July. Junta ground forces have advanced as far as Ho Hko village on the Mogok-Nawnghkio road, as the military continued to attack the gemstone-mining hub of Mogok, Mandalay Region with ground assaults, artillery, and airstrikes some 50 miles to the northwest. The junta has also recaptured the town of Thabeikkyin, Mandalay Region, to the west of Mogok, according to local sources, positioning them to launch offensives from both the west and south to retake Mogok. Junta troops advancing northeast from Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay Region captured Nawnghkio Township’s Hsam Ma Hse village, near the Pyin Oo Lwin-Mogok road intersection, on July 23. Four days later, they captured Thone Se village some four miles to the northwest, continuing to gain ground in their advance towards Mogok. The military reportedly seized the village of Ho Hko, some 11 miles northwest of Ho Hko, on Wednesday, after which shelling and clashes have persisted in the surrounding area. Villagers and people displaced by the fighting were forced to flee as the junta pushed northward. Ho Hko consists of a north and south village whose combined population numbers more than 3,000. Before this, nearly 2,000 had also fled the villages of Hsam Ma Hse, Ohn Ma Thee, and Kyu Inn, near the road intersection. Junta forces also took control of Loi Ngin village—also known as Gaw Ra Hkar—on August 3 as they continued their northwestward advance, resistance fighters said. Posts on pro-regime propaganda Telegram channels confirmed the junta forces’ recapture of the village. From their positions in the recently recaptured Thone Se village, junta troops have continued to launch concentrated ground offensives while firing heavy artillery every day, locals said. “Army columns are getting closer. Heavy artillery shells are falling daily. Everyone is fleeing for the safety of their children and families. The village has become almost empty of people,” said a Ho Hko resident shortly before the village fell. The advancing junta forces include new trainees conscripted under the mandatory military service law that the Myanmar regime revived last year, deployed from Mandalay as reinforcements. Anti-junta fighters admitted that it had been a struggle to fend off the junta offensive, which has the advantage in air power, drones, and artillery. The Nawnghkio-Mogok road, which was under the joint control of the TNLA and Mandalay Region People’s Defence Force for months, is now steadily falling back into the hands of the junta. “On the Mogok-Nawnghkio road section, junta troops are launching offensives, so battles are continuously happening. On our side, we are fighting defensively,” TNLA spokesperson Lway Yay Oo said. However, the TNLA did not give further details about the battles on the road section or offer an assessment of how many outposts they had lost so far. Local sources predicted that the junta forces would continue to the villages of Doe Pin and Nar Hkar after retaking Ho Hko. “The Ho Hko junction is important,” a Ho Hko resident said. “Then they may continue advancing to places like Doe Pin police station where they used to have troops stationed, or to Long Hkan and Nar Hkar villages. If they cross from there, they’ll be on the stretch of road going directly to Mogok.” Analysts confirmed that the junta will be able to cut off vital resistance supply routes once they retake Doe Pin. Both analysts and pro-junta propagandists have argued that the recapture of Ho Hko will consolidate the military’s control over the area around Pyin Oo Lwin and Nawnghkio. Junta airstrikes killed at least 31 civilians and injured 80 in the TNLA-controlled towns of Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio , Mogok, Monglon, and Kutkai in June and July, according to the TNLA’s records. As the reconvened ceasefire talks in Kunming loom in the wake of the TNLA’s recent territorial losses and amid ongoing clashes, the group’s weakened negotiating position may no longer allow its leaders to reject the junta’s demands to surrender the remaining cities under their control.

TNLA steadily losing ground before scheduled ceasefire talks in China

The negotiating position of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which rejected junta officials’ demand to surrender five cities under its control in April, has weakened with the military’s recapture of Nawnghkio and continuing advance towards Mogok

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