Myanmar military, MNDAA move to strengthen positions amid rising tensions

Myanmar’s military has conducted nightly aerial reconnaissance over areas of northern Shan State controlled by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), while both sides have reinforced their positions, according to residents. The increased military activity has raised fears of renewed fighting in the region, where the MNDAA, an ethnic Kokang armed group, seized territory during Operation 1027, an anti-junta offensive launched in late 2023. Residents said military aircraft have been flying over villages around Lashio, as well as the towns of Hsipaw and Kutkai, along a major trade route linking central Myanmar with northern Shan State and the Chinese border. “Every night, after around 7pm, aircraft come and conduct reconnaissance,” said a resident of Kutkai who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Sometimes they fly very low. The noise is so loud that everyone is terrified.” The MNDAA captured nine towns during Operation 1027, including Lashio, northern Shan State’s largest city. The group withdrew from urban areas of Lashio Township early last year under a ceasefire agreement mediated by China, but has retained control of nearby villages. Under the agreement, the military committed to refraining from airstrikes in MNDAA-controlled areas. The deal also called for maintaining stability along the Chinese border, ending hostilities, and negotiating arrangements for territorial administration. A school in Kutkai in May of this year (Photo: Myanmar Now) Despite the ceasefire, residents say military activity has increased in recent days. One Hsipaw resident said MNDAA troops have been seen moving along roads in the town carrying weapons and conducting what appeared to be front-line training. “They are training in full combat gear. We haven’t seen them do this before,” the resident said, adding that the group has also been steadily increasing its troop strength in the area in recent weeks. “Previously, the Kokang side rotated its personnel every three months. Now they’re bringing in new troops, but the old ones are also staying. I’ve seen them arriving in four or five vehicles at a time.” Tensions have also emerged over schools in MNDAA-controlled parts of Hsipaw Township. The military closed 17 schools in late August along the Hsipaw-Lashio and Hsipaw-Namlan roads, citing security concerns. The schools are in areas where MNDAA and Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) forces operate. The military later prepared to reopen the schools, but the MNDAA rejected the plan and said it would reopen and administer them itself, residents said. “The military had been preparing to reopen the schools, but closed them again because the Kokang side said it would open them itself,” a Hsipaw resident said. “The situation is quite complicated because the SSPP is also present in those areas.” The SSPP/SSA, an ethnic Shan armed group that is politically and militarily allied with the MNDAA, did not participate in Operation 1027 and has taken part in peace talks organised by the military in the regime’s capital Naypyitaw. A school in Hsipaw scheduled to be reopened by the MNDAA (Photo: The Kokang) The military has also increased its presence along a strategic corridor connecting northern Shan State with central Myanmar. It has retaken the towns of Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw and established a position near Hsipaw Bridge, according to residents. MNDAA forces are positioned on the other side of the bridge along the road to Lashio, with the two sides separated by about 400 meters, residents said. The military has also blocked Hsipaw Bridge, restricting the movement of goods from MNDAA-controlled territory toward central Myanmar, residents said. The MNDAA controls important trade routes in northern Shan State, including routes leading to the Muse border crossing with China. The restrictions have contributed to shortages of Chinese goods and higher prices in parts of Myanmar, residents said. The MNDAA had previously indicated it was preparing to participate in peace talks in Naypyitaw. But people close to the group said those plans were abandoned after the military carried out an airstrike on Teema, a village in Kutkai Township, on August 14. The military has not publicly confirmed or commented on the reported airstrike. The latest military movements come as the two sides remain bound by a ceasefire agreement but face unresolved disputes over territorial control, administration, and access to key trade routes. Residents said they fear that continued troop deployments and aerial surveillance could eventually lead to renewed clashes.

Myanmar military, MNDAA move to strengthen positions amid rising tensions

Recent signs of increased military activity along a key trade route have raised fears of a resumption of hostilities, despite a Chinese-brokered ceasefire

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