Myanmar junta on high alert as AA offensive nears Ayeyarwady Region

The Myanmar junta has tightened security in Ayeyarwady Region as the conflict between the army and anti-junta fighters in neighbouring Rakhine State has spread closer to the regional boundary, local sources said. Since breaking out in Rakhine State in August, clashes between the military and the powerful ethnic armed group Arakan Army (AA) have escalated in the state’s southernmost township, Gwa, which shares a border with Ayeyarwady Region. With the AA already in full control of Rakhine State’s Taungup and Thandwe townships and moving into Gwa, the remaining civilian residents of towns in Ayeyarwady Region are noticing an unsettling quiet as more and more of their neighbours move away to distance themselves from the fighting. “Because of conscription, on top of anti-junta groups possibly coming into the area, some local people have started relocating to Yangon or Naypyitaw, where their children live,” said a 28-year-old man from Hinthada, Ayeyarwady Region, a city in northern Ayeyarwady Region east of the Rakhine Yoma hills. He was referring to the military junta’s revival and enforcement of a decade-old mandatory military service requirement earlier this year, which young people eligible for service have widely tried to evade. “In the evenings, the city becomes eerily silent around 6 or 7pm,” the Hinthada resident said. Hinthada locals also said they had recently seen more soldiers and armed pro-junta militia members than usual, and suspected junta informants were working covertly among their civilian neighbours. The military has also reportedly set up more checkpoints on the roads in Pathein, Ayeyarwady Region’s most populous city, and a massive influx of displaced people from Rakhine State has created a shortage of space for sheltering them, a Pathein resident in her 40s said. Due to its location, control of Gwa Township will give the AA a significant strategic advantage if they succeed in capturing it.The township shares borders with four townships in Ayeyarwady Region as well as Rakhine State’s Thandwe Township, and is bounded by the Bay of Bengal to the west. Gwa is also located on a highway running from Rakhine State’s Thandwe through Ngathaingchaung, Ayeyarwady Region to Yangon. According to a source in Pathein, the junta has already relocated Ngathaingchaung’s central police station and forced a local hospital to discharge or transfer patients in preparation for a potential evacuation. The AA has designated areas of Ayeyarwady Region adjacent to Rakhine State as a part of a military front they have dubbed the “Nova-3” operation zone. On December 12, the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) operating under the National Unity Government defence ministry’s southern military regional command issued a statement announcing the establishment of a new, Ayeyarwady Region-based military command. While the PDF had not widely publicised the nature of their activities in Ayeyarwady Region or position regarding the AA before, the statement emphasised that collaboration with Myanmar’s minority ethnic armed groups—which include the AA—was a priority in the area. Statement from the People’s Defence Forces on the establishment of new command in the Ayeyarwady Region (Photo: PDF) Evicted and persecuted Although no major clashes have yet broken out in Ayeyarwady Region, junta forces were taking measures to prepare for the AA’s advance as early as October of this year, forcibly removing civilians from villages in the foothills of the Rakhine Yoma mountain range. The military has forced families out of their homes in more than 300 households across 20 villages in Yegyi Township, Ayeyarwady Region and parts of Gwa Township. Many displaced civilians from Gwa Township have sought shelter in the neighbouring Ayeyarwady Region townships like Yegyi, Ngathaingchaung, Lemyethna, and Thabaung. Displaced people entering Ayeyarwady Region from Gwa Township said they have been subject to strict document checks and are vulnerable to extortion by junta authorities, especially if their papers are not updated and in order. Those without current registrations may face intimidation or detention at the hands of soldiers and local administrators. A displaced person from Rakhine State in her 30s, now living in Yangon, said that anyone holding a Rakhine State identification card faces more intensive scrutiny. “Wherever those of us with the ‘11’ go, we are targeted for extra inspections,” she said, referring to the code number designating residency in Rakhine State on her ID card. “If young people lack proper documents, they are immediately detained. Refugees are especially vulnerable to intimidation and pressure from the military.” The AA issued a statement on December 18 claiming to have seized weapons and ammunition during a battle in Gwa Township. However, the groups claims could not be verified, as electric and phone service outages have made any communication with local civilians trapped in Gwa virtually impossible. Members of Arakan Army undergo training in Kachin State in 2017 (Photo: Myanmar Now) The imminent fall of the junta’s regional headquarters The army’s Western Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters in Ann Township—also known locally by its Burmese abbreviation Na Pa Kha—is on the verge of falling to the AA. On Wednesday, the AA released a statement claiming the military had concentrated hundreds of ground troops in Ann Township and continued to use airstrikes and heavy artillery shelling to repel their advance. The junta’s resorting to airstrikes and shelling to defend the headquarters, rather than the clashes between ground forces, were the main reason the fighting had escalated, the AA said. The group also claimed that explosions inside the RMC compound had resulted in casualties among the junta forces, while others had surrendered to the AA. The Rakhine ethnic armed organisation has repeatedly urged junta soldiers to surrender, promising to treat them humanely, keep them safe, and reunite them with their families. With the AA having taken over most of Ann Township with a string of assaults since September, only the Na Pa Kha headquarters now remains in the military’s hands. The Western RMC in Ann serves as the command centre for junta battalions operating in Rakhine and Chin states. If the RMC falls, the AA will have succeeded in seizing not only a crucial military target, but most of the strategically important areas of Rakhine State except for the administrative capital, Sittwe, and two coastal townships: Manaung and Kyaukphyu. Kyaukphyu Township is home to high-valued development projects backed by Chinese investors as well as army and naval bases. The AA’s recent push into Gwa Township, the southernmost township in the state, comes after its takeover of 12 townships since November 2023. These include Paletwa Township in Chin State as well as 11 of Rakhine State’s 17 townships: Myebon, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Maungdaw, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Ramree (Yanbye), Thandwe, and Taungup. Ann Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters seen burning during a clash this week (Photo: AA)

Myanmar junta on high alert as AA offensive nears Ayeyarwady Region

Tensions are rising in Ayeyarwady Region west of Yangon as the Arakan Army, already poised to take over the military’s regional headquarters in Rakhine State, continues to push into Gwa Township on the Rakhine-Ayeyarwady border

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