Junta struggles to regain territory ahead of election push

The northern Shan State ceasefire has delivered the Myanmar junta an unexpected strategic opportunity: the chance to reallocate overstretched troops and aircraft to other critical theatres. But that redeployment is already stalling, and in some cases reversing, with resistance forces holding ground in recent months despite unprecedented numbers of airstrikes. The military’s renewed capacity is already being felt in Rakhine and deep inside central Myanmar, where commanders anticipate a far more aggressive push than in recent months. In the Mandalay Region, fighters expect the heaviest battles to soon ignite in Madaya, Singu, and Thabeikkyin—townships that encircle Mogok and have become the next line of pressure points in the junta’s shifting war. And despite the agreement by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to hand over two towns, including Mogok—the region's gemstone-mining hub in Mandalay Region—local resistance groups have pledged to resist the junta's return. As of reporting, the military regime has secured more than half of the Madaya townships as well—recapturing its strategic defense locations previously repulsed by the resistance forces. “Currently, the situation in Madaya Township is extremely challenging,” a resistance fighter from Madaya Township told Myanmar Now. A group of Mandalay People’s Defense Forces (MDY-PDF) participate in a training ceremony in September, 2025. (Photo: Mandalay People’s Defense Forces) “MDY PDF and other resistance groups are making maximum effort to hold the line, but the military is escalating its assaults by deploying jet fighters and suicide drones. So, we have to pull back our fighters to prevent losses.”The military regime lost these areas to a coalition of resistance forces led by the Mandalay People’s Defense Force (MDY-PDF) and the TNLA during the second phase of Operation 1027, a large-scale offensive that spread from northern Shan and Rakhine states. Battalions under the civilian National Unity Government’s (NUG) Military Region 1 and other local armed groups based in Mandalay Region also participated in the fighting to capture Madaya, Singu, and Thabeikkyin townships. After suffering a major defeat in Rakhine and northern Shan State, the military filled in gaps with combat troops through widespread conscription. Thousands of newly conscripted soldiers are being dispatched to multiple fronts across the country after only a short period of military training. “The junta deployed thousands of conscripted soldiers to the border of Magway-Rakhine and Ayeyarwaddy-Rakhine,” a resistance fighter from Magway Region said. “But it [junta] remains unable to reclaim its territories lost to the Arakan Army.” Karenni Nationalities Defense Force troops advance on junta positions on the outskirts of Bawlakhe, Karenni State, amid intensified fighting in May 2025. (Photo: Caleb Quinley / Myanmar Now) Defying an election Experts say the military is expected to concentrate both ground assaults and aerial attacks across at least ten townships in Mandalay Region—key population centres where the regime hopes to stage elections and reassert its authority. At the same time, Zin Yaw, a defected junta captain now with the resistance who analyzes the military regime’s strategy, said fighting is likely to intensify in several areas in the months ahead, including Chin State’s Thantlang, Tonzang and Falam townships; the Rakhine State townships of Gwa, Ann, Thandwe and Taungup; and Mansi and Momauk in Kachin State. “If the military could secure its ground in Mogok and Mongmit, it could start offensives in Kachin State and Sagaing Region,” he said, noting that it’s a strategically vital town due to its location.Sources say the junta is desperate to take back ground that it lost in the last three years, especially in areas like Rakhine State. At least 14 townships across Rakhine—and Paletwa in neighboring Chin—are now under Arakan Army (AA) control. The junta’s presence has been reduced to a handful of urban pockets, including Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung Island. After capturing 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, the AA have unleashed continued fighting along the border of Ayeyarwady, Bago and Magway regions as well.Similarly, in Chin State, the military regime is confined to the urban areas of Hakha and Tedim, while resistance forces led by the Chin Brotherhood (CB) and Chinland Council (CC) have occupied the rest of the mountainous territory. The fighting is ongoing in Chin State as the junta tries to scratch back lost ground. Recently, the military deployed a large number of troops to the village of Thaing Ngin, a strategically important point due to its vicinity to Falam, Tedim, and Kalay towns. In Kachin State, the junta continues to hold Bhamo, but its push to retake Banmauk on the Sagaing–Kachin border has stalled in the face of resistance. Farther south, the military has launched an aggressive counteroffensive around Mobye and Pekhon on the Karenni–Shan frontier. Karenni resistance groups, forced out of Demoso and Hpruso, are now trying to contain the junta’s advance across at least five townships. Yet while the junta is ratcheting up its offensives, the Karenni resistance still maintains large swathes of control across the state. “The military is utilising Mobye and Pekon as key staging points to launch clearance operations in western Demoso Township,” Zin Yaw added. “In order for elections to be held in Bawlakhe, Demoso, and Hpruso townships, the military will need to deploy formations to drive displaced residents back into these urban areas.”Junta advances in Saging Region Despite widespread armed conflict across Sagaing, the first phase of the election is scheduled to begin on December 28 in 12 townships across Sagaing Region. Katha District is one of the places pegged to begin polls. But it faces a challenging security environment as two out of the four major townships in Katha have been seized by resistance forces. The towns of Indaw and Banmauk located within Katha are under resistance control, and while Tigyaing town has suffered widespread destruction due to clashes, it has been abandoned by its residents, leaving only military hilltop positions, and no voting populace. Although Katha town itself remains under regime control, the surrounding rural areas and outskirts are held by the resistance—a common pattern seen nationwide. “Junta troops couldn’t even get out of the town as the outskirts are under the control of resistance forces,” a woman from Katha Township told Myanmar Now. “They haven’t set up or announced the locations of polling stations for residents to cast votes in the town. No one believes that this election will go smoothly.” In lower Sagaing, stretching from Monywa to Sagaing town and Shwebo, resistance forces continue to rely on guerrilla tactics, limiting the junta’s ability to cement control. “Recently, we saw the military using a large number of troops, split into smaller groups to attack from several directions at the same time,” a resistance fighter from Chaung U told Myanmar Now. “If there were more raids carried out by junta troops, there would be more challenges for civilians, but there is no risk of a major territory loss for us.” Ultimately, sources say that junta aerial assaults—as deadly as they are—have not caused enough momentum for junta ground forces to capture significant resistance-held areas in Sagaing. It's a common view shared across many resistance-held regions, where fighters often claim the junta’s expanded operations have done little to alter the map, and where military control is not as far reaching beyond the garrison of towns.“While the aerial assaults have resulted in casualties among both civilians and our fighters, we have lost almost none of the territory,” another resistance source from Sagaing said. “These attacks are mainly to cause major harm to civilians. Even if the regime intensifies these attacks, there will be no major change to the overall status of the revolution in our areas.”

Junta struggles to regain territory ahead of election push

Despite fresh offensives and a northern ceasefire reprieve, the military’s push to retake territory ahead of the election is stalling across many of Myanmar’s war zones

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