Future uncertain for Mogok, Mongmit after planned handover to Myanmar military

In ninth round of Chinese-mediated ceasefire negotiations, the Myanmar military and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) finally reached a long-deliberated agreement on October 29, with the Ta’ang ethnic armed group pledging to give up control of two cities they had held for over a year. However, analysts have noted, anti-junta resistance fighters controlling routes to Mandalay Region’s Mogok and nearby Mongmit (sometimes called Momeik), northern Shan State have declared they are not willing to relinquish control to the military regime, potentially complicating the handover of territory between the TNLA and junta forces. While the TNLA has assented to the junta’s takeover of the two cities, the negotiating parties are still reportedly discussing the timeline and terms by which it will proceed. "As in Lashio, there are still matters to discuss, such as establishing a liaison office in Mogok and other issues,” a source connected to the TNLA said. “They’ll meet two more times or so. It seems that there’s pressure on the [TNLA] leadership not to disclose the details.” For its own part, the military regime is reportedly planning the reassignment of civil servants and administrators to Mogok and Mongmit, following a plan similar to the junta’s process for regaining control of Lashio, northern Shan State after another ethnic armed organisation—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang army—agreed to withdraw its forces earlier this year. Succumbing to diplomatic pressure from China, as well as highly destructive junta airstrikes that had rendered normal life and business in TNLA-held cities impossible, the Ta’ang armed group agreed to a comparable procedure for giving up control. The Lashio precedent The MNDAA captured Lashio as part of a broad offensive against the military launched in October 2023, dubbed Operation 1027, during which the MNDAA—in an alliance with the TNLA, Arakan Army (AA), and other anti-junta armed groups—captured most of northern Shan State from the Myanmar military. The Kokang army’s capture of Lashio—northern Shan State’s capital and largest city as well as the site of the military’s Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) headquarters—provoked pressure from China to cease offensive operations against Myanmar’s military. Beijing, which had tacitly or implicitly supported the MNDAA and TNLA when their offensive targeted illegal scam centres tolerated by the junta and its allies on the China-Myanmar border, proved reluctant to keep backing the groups after they had already succeeded in subduing the criminal operations and continued to take over territory. The pressure from China included sequestering MNDAA commander Peng Daxun in Yunnan Province in 2024, effectively holding him until the Kokang armed group consented to start ceasefire talks. Chinese pressure also appeared crucial in inducing the MNDAA to end its alliances with Myanmar resistance groups like the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) and National Unity Government (NUG), as well as to forswear travel to Western countries or answering Western media queries. MNDAA and TNLA members in Kutkai, northern Shan State in early January 2024 (Photo: Myat Pan) By the time Myanmar junta troops reentered Lashio in April 2024 with the MNDAA’s assent, the Kokang group had also ended its alliances with most NUG-connected and other anti-junta resistance forces in northern Myanmar. These included Ethnic Brigade 611—which included two Arakan Army battalions based in northern Shan State—as well as battalions of the People’s Liberation Army, the Bamar People’s Liberation Army, the Myanmar Royal Dragon Army and the Meiktila PDF. Cut off from the MNDAA’s support, the fighters of these groups relocated to TNLA-controlled areas, Mandalay Region and Sagaing Region. The planned handover Some political observers have argued the transfer of Mogok and Mongmit to junta control could prove more less straightforward than the MNDAA’s surrender of Lashio, in part because of other anti-junta armed groups’ unwillingness to go along. “No problems arose in Lashio because China systematically arranged things step by step for the Kokang army, organising everything strategically so nothing went wrong,” one analyst said. “Plus, the groups in Lashio were mostly ethnic organisations connected to China. That won’t be possible in Mogok.” Unlike the fighters in the TNLA, the MNDAA’s membership is predominantly ethnically Kokang, a culturally Chinese community based in northern Shan State that speaks a dialect of Mandarin similar to that used in Yunnan Province. Many northern Shan State- and Mandalay Region-based resistance forces that previously fought alongside the MNDAA and TNLA against the junta—including the PLA, Mandalay Region PDF (MDY-PDF), Mogok People’s Defence Organisation (Mogok PDO), and Mogok Tactical Unit—have declared they will continue to defend Mogok and Mongmit from the junta. The All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), one of Myanmar’s longest-established anti-authoritarian resistance groups, has also said it is ready to defend Mongmit in cooperation with resistance groups based in Sagaing Region. “We’ve been operating in these areas since before the towns were captured and have always been there defending the towns after they were taken,” a PLA spokesperson said. “Our comrades have sacrificed a lot of blood and sweat, so we will continue fighting alongside our allies.” MDY-PDF and PLA fighters have held control of crucial segments of the Thabeikkyin-Mogok road and Kyaukgyi 7-Mile road in Mandalay Region, while the Mogok Tactical Unit and Mogok PDO members primarily operate around the town of Mogok. Sign at the entrance to Mogok, Mandalay Region, pictured in 2023 (Photo - Myanmar Now) The local view Two columns of junta ground forces had been carrying out assaults on Mogok before concluding the ceasefire with the TNLA. Junta troops also recaptured the Air Defence Battalion 1014 base near In Gyin Myaing village in eastern Madaya Township, Mandalay Region, as well as the Sedawgyi Dam camp to the north. The recapture of these areas would enable the military to bolster its defences of Mandalay and Pyin Oo Lwin, tactical analysts said, as well as concentrate its forces to secure its control over Mogok. However, the military withdrew troops from northern Shan State near Mogok around the same time, redeploying them to Yangon and Yamethin, Mandalay Region. This suggested that if battles with resistance forces resumed around Mogok, the military would rely on airstrikes and artillery rather than ground forces to fend off the resistance. “The pattern will likely be like in northern Shan State,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a former officer who defected from the military after the 2021 coup. “Unable to sustain operations by infantry columns, they’ll prioritise aerial and artillery attacks.” Civilians in Mogok, a town of five wards with an estimated population of 90,000 as of 2019, said they and their neighbours were fleeing the town, fearing junta aerial assaults following reports that resistance fighters in the area were not willing to cease fighting. “Only a few people are still in the town. The resistance groups are saying they won’t give it back,” said a Mogok resident in his 50s. “Residents are mostly evacuating because they’re afraid of airstrikes.” As in Mogok, residents of the smaller town of Mongmit some 28 miles to the north are apprehensive about the future. The town was a site of fierce fighting and target of relentless junta airstrikes especially during the second phase of the Operation 1027 offensive in 2024. Captured and controlled by an alliance of TNLA, MDY-PDF, and NUG-affiliated resistance forces with help from other groups including the PLA, the town was briefly recaptured in early 2024 by junta forces, who terrorised locals by detaining and interrogating them. Residents now fear the resumption of lethal fighting for the town, as well as reprisals against civilians if the military succeeds in taking over the town again. PLA fighters seen after attacking the junta’s Mongmit tactical camp during Operation 1027 (Photo - PLA) “We don't know whether they will defend Mogok or help Mongmit,” a resident of Mongmit said, referring to resistance forces. “Many resistance groups have arrived. Residents are just afraid of what’s coming from above,” he added, referring to junta airstrikes. “It happened before, so most are already evacuating.” Both towns and their surroundings are known for their valuable resources. Mogok is especially famous as a hub for mining rubies and other gemstones, while Mongmit and its surroundings are a source of gold, diamonds, and teak. Mongmit locals have also claimed there are uranium ore deposits near the town. “There are uranium deposits in the Shweudaung Reserved Forest area between Mongmit, Mogok, and Twinnge,” the Mongmit resident said. “We don’t hear anything from that area now. But there are gold mining operations continuing.” Locals said most gold mining operations in the area were still run by resistance groups. With help from other groups and resistance forces, the TNLA led the capture of a dozen towns during Operation 1027, including Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Monglon, Mongngawt, Mongmit, Namhsan, Manton, Kutkai, Namkham, and Namtu in northern Shan State as well as Mogok in Mandalay Region. The Myanmar military recaptured Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw this year, reopening an important route through northern Shan State to enable border trade with China. With the return of Mogok and Mongmit to military control, the TNLA is giving up all five of the towns it captured during the second phase of Operation 1027. The junta’s focus on regaining these towns, with backing from Beijing, reveals their importance for both the military regime’s strategy and Chinese interests.

Future uncertain for Mogok, Mongmit after planned handover to Myanmar military

With resistance forces refusing to relinquish control of the towns despite a ceasefire between the military and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), local civilians fear a resumption of clashes and airstrikes

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