As China-brokered deal reshapes control of Lashio, residents are left in limbo

In a quiet but significant development, Lashio—northern Shan State’s largest city—was partially handed over to Myanmar’s military junta by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) on April 21, under a China-brokered agreement. While officials in Naypyitaw, Beijing, and the MNDAA (also known as the Kokang army) have kept the terms undisclosed, sources say that the junta will retain control over 12 urban wards, while the MNDAA will govern more than 450 surrounding villages. Military deployments are restricted by newly drawn boundaries, and a Chinese delegation will establish a monitoring office in the city. The junta is prohibited from deploying troops beyond the AT Bridge toward Hsenwi in the north, the Einaing Bridge leading to Namtu in the west, and Maehan Village en route to Hsipaw in the south. Locals report that Kokang forces continue to operate beyond these limits. Hsenwi, once the largest city in northern Shan State under a Shan ethnic chieftain, was captured by Kokang forces last year from junta control. Meanwhile, Namtu and Hsipaw, which border Lashio, have been seized by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, an ally of the MNDAA. The junta’s only open routes for Lashio are south to Mongyai and southeast to Tangyan in Shan State. Sources say the arrangement marks a major shift in Lashio’s administration and reflects China’s deepening influence in reshaping territorial control inside Myanmar. Under the new agreement, the junta retains access to hospitals, government offices, and key facilities within Lashio’s 12 city wards, while the Kokang army controls 450 surrounding villages. “The Kokang police withdrew from the town on Saturday, but the military-run offices, other departments, and police stations in Lashio are still closed,” a Lashio resident told Myanmar Now. Before the conflict, Lashio had a population of about 140,000, with over 150,000 more living in the surrounding villages. It is now understood that roughly half of the township’s population will live under junta administration, while the other half will fall under MNDAA control. Despite overseeing half of Lashio’s population, the junta’s regained territory accounts for only one percent of the township’s land—limited to 18 square miles within the city’s 12 wards. The remaining 99 percent, spanning over 1,600 square miles, remains under MNDAA control. This division of control is causing confusion and uncertainty among Lashio’s residents. Sources report that staff from the junta’s general administration, immigration, and other departments have recently begun arriving in the city. “Even some staff currently stationed in Taunggyi will return in May,” a woman from Lashio, who requested anonymity, told Myanmar Now. She added that junta officials are expected to return to the city in two groups. “The first batch has to return to Lashio by the end of this April,” she said. “We don’t know when the second batch will return.” Following the MNDAA’s withdrawal on April 21, locals report that hospitals, police stations, and government offices in Lashio remain shuttered. Although the MNDAA has released some prisoners from Lashio Prison, control of the facility remains unclear. Amid the ongoing power vacuum, incidents of looting have surged across the city. While some Kokang police remain at the main police station in Lashio, residents say they are no longer conducting patrols or security checks. It is understood that the Kokang police are now providing security for the Chinese ceasefire monitoring representatives sent by Beijing. Although the Chinese government has acknowledged dispatching a monitoring delegation to Lashio, it has not disclosed the team’s exact location. “There are fewer shoppers coming to Lashio to buy goods, as junta troops are extorting money at the town’s entry and exit checkpoints,” a man from Lashio said. “Passenger vehicles have to pay 30,000 kyat (US $6.80) at the town’s entrance.” The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and allies are pictured after capturing the city of Lashio on August 3, 2024 (Photo: The Kokang) Lashio residents in limbo Local residents are concerned that the future of Lashio remains as uncertain as ever. “We’re in a transitional phase; we don’t even know who to call ‘father’ anymore,” a man in his 60s said. At a press conference held on March 27—the junta’s Armed Forces Day—regime spokesman Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun announced that “peace negotiations with the MNDAA have been successful” with China’s help. Nevertheless, details of the deal remain secret, raising concerns about future risks to residents. The junta had labeled the MNDAA, TNLA, and Arakan Army as terrorist organisations on September 2, 2024, allowing authorities to arrest residents under the Counter-Terrorism Law and seize properties allegedly tied to MNDAA supporters. Military-aged youths under junta-controlled areas also face forced conscription under the People’s Military Service Law. Analysts believe China pressured the MNDAA to return Lashio for two reasons: reopening vital China-Myanmar trade routes and facilitating junta-organised elections this year, which Beijing has pledged to support. While talks between the TNLA and junta under Chinese mediation have so far stalled, another round is scheduled for next month. To hold elections in Lashio, the junta must first conduct a census—a critical step, since last year’s census excluded Lashio District due to security issues. With only about eight months left before the elections, securing a ceasefire to carry out a new census is vital. The Kokang also have stakes in the elections, seeking formal recognition for the territories they captured during Operation 1027. The junta still adheres to the 2008 Constitution, which defines the Kokang Self-Administered Zone as covering only Konkyan and Laukkai near the Sino-Myanmar border. However, the MNDAA now controls areas extending more than 80 miles westward to Lashio, including Mong Ko, Pang Hseng (Kyu Koke), Kunlong, and Hsenwi. Former Kokang leaders who governed under Myanmar junta influence from 2009 to 2023 were arrested in 2024 and extradited to China over alleged involvement in online scam operations (Photo: Xinhua) The junta faces a shortage of candidates to appoint as Kokang administrators. Powerful local families aligned with the Myanmar military in the past have been sidelined—many handed over to China on charges linked to online scams. Some analysts suggest that if a future junta-backed government formally recognises the MNDAA as the Kokang authority, the Kokang army could evolve into an official regional government—paving the way for formal diplomatic ties with China. Sources also suggest that China’s mediation in Lashio ultimately benefits both the junta and the MNDAA. A Chinese spokesperson confirmed on April 22 that both the junta and MNDAA had expressed gratitude to Beijing for its role in brokering the agreement.

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