Advance votes and split ballots: Dr Aye Maung on how the election played out in Rakhine

Myanmar’s military junta is pressing ahead with an election widely regarded as a sham. Held amid ongoing conflict, mass displacement, and the exclusion of large parts of the country from voting, it is being conducted under a hybrid electoral system, combining First Past the Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) that favours the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). In western Myanmar’s Rakhine State, voting took place in only three townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung—while the rest of the state remains under the control of the Arakan Army. Dr Aye Maung, a prominent political figure in the state, worked as a civil servant before entering politics and contesting the 2010 elections. The former upper house lawmaker now chairs the Arakan Front Party (AFP). Convicted of treason during the previous civilian administration and later released under an amnesty after the military coup in 2021, he was initially barred from contesting elections under existing rules. However, a special decree by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing restored his eligibility ahead of the 2025 polls, despite his past conviction. Dr Aye Maung contested Sittwe Township’s seat in the Amyotha Hluttaw (upper house of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, or Union Parliament) during the first phase of voting on December 28 but lost to a USDP candidate. In this interview, he explains how split Rakhine votes, advance ballots, and the hybrid FPTP–PR system shaped the outcome, and reflects on what the results mean for Rakhine State’s political future. Myanmar Now: Do you know which party is leading in Sittwe? How is your party doing? Dr Aye Maung: In the urban wards of Sittwe, our party appeared to be leading in many places, but it is the responsibility of the Union Election Commission to compile the final results, so we do not yet know the full picture. There are wards and village tracts where the USDP won, and others where we were ahead. Another Rakhine party, the Rakhine Nationalities Party (RNP), is behind. What happened is that Rakhine votes were split between the Rakhine parties. Our party received the majority of Rakhine votes, while the RNP received a smaller share. Because of this split, the USDP was able to take advantage of its core base and win in certain wards. Rakhine Nationalities Party candidate Ba Shein campaigning in Kyaukphyu in the first week of November (Photo: Thayabathi Thandar Lacham Myi) In addition, the USDP benefited from advance votes from the military, as well as the majority of votes from the Muslim community. That is why the USDP is now leading overall in the Sittwe contest. In Kyaukphyu, the USDP received more than 2,000 advance votes, which allowed it to lead in all First Past the Post seats there. In Manaung, our party won the FPTP seats for the Amyotha Hluttaw and the Rakhine State Hluttaw. Based on this, we estimate that one FPTP representative and about three Proportional Representation representatives from our party could enter the Amyotha Hluttaw from that area. The USDP may enter in a similar proportion. For the Pyithu Hluttaw [lower house], the USDP is likely to win in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. The situation in Manaung is not yet clear. MN: You say the USDP is leading in the Sittwe Amyotha Hluttaw seat where you contested? Were you in second place? DAM: There is no concept of “second place” in the FPTP system. The winner takes all. I lost in Sittwe—that is the reality. A fisherman in Rakhine State’s Thandwe Township in November 2025 (Photo: Myanmar Now) MN: Can you give a general overview of the election situation in Rakhine State? DAM: In Kyaukphyu, our candidates lost despite initially leading. If advance votes had not been included, we would have won there. The same applies in northern Rakhine State, where more than 10,000 advance votes and votes from newly issued National Registration Cards influenced the outcome. In Manaung, most voters were local residents, and there were no army advance votes. That is why our party won there. Based on current estimates, about seven AFP representatives could enter the Rakhine State Hluttaw—around four from the south and three through PR from the north. The USDP could secure around eight seats, giving it the numbers needed to nominate the chief minister and potentially control the speaker and deputy speaker positions. For the Amyotha Hluttaw, there are three FPTP seats in total. The USDP won two, and our party won one. Through PR, our party could gain additional seats, particularly from the south, while the USDP may also gain seats through PR in the north. For the Pyithu Hluttaw, the USDP has won in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. The result in Manaung is still unclear. Arakan Army soldiers in Rakhine State. The group controls 14 of the state’s 17 townships (Photo: Myanmar Now) MN: As a veteran politician who lost in Sittwe, how will you move forward? What are your next steps? DAM: My party won as much as could reasonably be expected under these conditions. I knew in advance that I would likely lose because of army advance votes and voting patterns. Still, I contested because I felt it was my responsibility. My aim was never to become chief minister. I wanted to enter the Amyotha Hluttaw to speak about ethnic affairs and peace. Even if I cannot do that myself, we have others in my party who can represent these issues. I will continue as party chairman. The next five years are extremely important. If national reconciliation cannot be achieved, Myanmar will continue repeating the same destructive cycle. Winning or losing is not the main issue—the future political direction is. MN: Finally, do you consider this election to be free and fair? DAM: Whether it is free and fair is for the public to decide. Our main concern has always been advance voting. This was a problem in the 2010 elections as well. The 2015 election, led by General Tin Aye, was the most transparent we have ever seen. That standard has not been matched since. Despite its flaws, an election is necessary under the 2008 Constitution to find a way out of the current crisis. That is why we contested. Winning or losing is only part of the process. Political stability and ending armed conflict are what truly matter. If those in power simply say, “I won, so I will do whatever I want,” there can be no genuine solution. What matters is whether the process produces unity and peace for Rakhine State and the country as a whole. That is what should be analysed and debated.

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