Since the fall of the Myanmar regime’s Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in the strategic city of Lashio in August, a clear picture has emerged: the country’s long-standing military dictatorship is weak and getting weaker, and appears to be heading for collapse.
Lashio, an important city both militarily and economically, holds significance as a major junction for China-Myanmar trade routes. It is also a city rich in history. During World War II, it served as the terminus of the Burma Road, a critical supply route connecting Kunming in China to the Allied forces in Myanmar. This road was vital for transporting supplies to Chinese forces fighting the Japanese.
Thousands of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops arrived in the city from China to help halt the Japanese advancing toward upper Myanmar from Yangon. Sir Dorman-Smith, the British colonial governor of Myanmar, also retreated to Lashio from Yangon when the Japanese forces occupied the country’s capital, eventually fleeing to India via Myitkyina in Kachin State.
The capture of Lashio by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic Kokang armed group, four and a half months ago was also an event of real historical importance, marking a decisive shift in the power dynamics of Myanmar’s ongoing civil war. It underscored the deep demoralisation of the regime’s forces, who now find themselves on the defensive after their most significant military defeat in years.
China, wary of the unravelling situation and the potential shift in the political landscape in Myanmar, has attempted to intervene to curb further territorial gains by the MNDAA and other anti-junta forces. This includes tightening control over goods and fuel at China-Myanmar border crossings and issuing threats to the regime’s opponents. While this pressure has worked to some extent in northern Shan State, in Kachin and Rakhine states, the junta continues to suffer defeat after defeat.
The Arakan Army (AA), in particular, is on the verge of rewriting the history of the Rakhine (Arakanese) ethnic group and Myanmar itself. The Arakanese Kingdom lost its sovereignty to the Burmese in the late 18th century, and the story of how the invading forces rampaged through the kingdom and carried off its Great Mahamuni Buddha image to Mandalay still fuels the nationalist aspirations that the Rakhine people have fostered over the past 238 years.
Currently, the AA is poised to take control of Ann, the town in central Rakhine State that hosts the junta’s Western Regional Military Command headquarters. This could place the port town of Kyaukphyu, a crucial node in the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline network, under significant pressure. Should the AA succeed in its efforts, it could gain a stranglehold over Myanmar’s vital oil and gas fields in the Bay of Bengal, one of the junta’s largest sources of revenue.
In Myanmar’s northern regions, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has already gained control over rare earth mines and vast stretches of territory in Kachin State—the largest territorial expansion since the group was founded decades ago to resist Burmese rule. The KIA is now focused on consolidating its position, with plans to advance on the city of Myitkyina after taking nearby Bhamo Township.
Despite China’s ongoing attempts to exert influence over Myanmar’s civil war, the resolute defiance of these ethnic armed groups shows that external intervention may slow the junta’s collapse, but cannot prevent it. Myanmar’s military regime is rapidly losing momentum. Its supply lines are being severed, and the financial resources sustaining its forces are dwindling. Meanwhile, the logistical and financial resources available to the opposition groups are growing stronger by the day.
Despite some localised territorial disputes between the various revolutionary groups, there is a remarkable degree of coordination in their shared goal of toppling the junta. These groups are united by a common vision of ending military rule in Myanmar.
The speed of the junta’s downfall now depends largely on the revolutionary groups’ ability to continue mobilising manpower, weapons, and financial resources. The developments over the past few months, particularly since the fall of Lashio, make it clear: the collapse of Myanmar’s military dictatorship is no longer a matter of if, but when. No external power, not even China, can halt this process any longer.
