A leaked copy of a speech delivered by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in a June meeting of military officials suggested that the regime’s armed forces are struggling to cope with heavy losses caused by clashes with resistance forces across Myanmar.
The speech, dated June 21, was part of an evaluation of military operations during the first four months of 2022, as well as some incidents in May. The four-page document was made public by a support group for defecting Myanmar army soldiers called People’s Goal, which claimed to have obtained it from an inside military source.
In his 16-point opening statement, Min Aung Hlaing admitted that the armed forces’ significant casualties were due to four main “weaknesses.” These included the unstrategic deployment of troops and placement of bases, incorrect reporting on base locations by ground leadership, poorly planned advances in clearance operations, and an inability by the troops to engage in tactical combat.
“After our assessment of the previous incidents, it is found that in their fight against the terrorists, our soldiers were unable to fully apply the military skills that they were taught, even though they are required to do so,” Min Aung Hlaing said, using the term “terrorists” to refer to the anti-coup resistance.
He also blamed the commanders’ inadequacy, a lack of courage on the part of the soldiers, and wasted ammunition for military losses.
“When we think about the reason for this weakness in leadership, one problem is that we produced a large quantity [of soldiers] in the past,” he said, implying that in spite of the high troop output, there was a lack of those qualified to command.
Administration of the army units is also “in disarray,” the junta chief lamented, adding, “Some [soldiers] are going out, drinking and having fun.”
Resistance forces “exploited” these weaknesses and used them to launch counterattacks, he claimed.
Since September of last year, the publicly mandated National Unity Government (NUG) has estimated that more than 20,000 junta troops have lost their lives waging war on those opposed to the regime.
Meanwhile, some 1,500 resistance fighters, including members of ethnic armed organisations considered to be allies of the NUG, were killed in clashes with the military, according to the government body.
In the year since its September 2021 declaration of a defensive war against the junta, the NUG claims that the resistance has gained greater control of territory, and that in these areas, the coup regime has not been able to establish its administration.
In a September 7 panel discussion marking the anniversary of the declaration, security and military affairs analyst Anthony Davis said that the junta’s forces had been “too thinly spread” across the country and “undermanned” for decades. Taking advantage of these vulnerabilities and gaining combat experience is what allowed resistance groups to take control of several areas nationwide, he said.
A military officer who defected to the resistance—one of 3,000 soldiers and 6,000 police officials to have done so since the coup, according to the NUG—told Myanmar Now that the junta chief’s speech pointed to growing fractures within the armed forces.
“Those in the upper levels are too demanding, and the duties are not balanced with the manpower,” he explained. “Once the soldiers lose confidence in their superiors, they don’t want to go to war for them anymore.”
“They do not have the support of the public, so they have become demoralised. Without high morale, they can’t fight,” the officer added.
Khu Ree Reh, a secretary and information officer for the anti-junta Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, said that the high number of casualties on the side of the military is largely due to the unfamiliar territory in which the soldiers are fighting. He noted that the Myanmar army units are often attacked by the local resistance forces as soon as they exit their bases.
“We have the upper hand in Karenni State no matter which battalion or unit makes its way to our area. They face greater casualties than us,” he said, adding that the junta soldiers in the state also appear to be low on supplies, including food rations.
Reminding military officials that “manpower, firepower and time” are necessary in order to win a war, Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged what he called a “force of manpower” on the part of the resistance. The nod was likely a reference to the formation of alliances between several groups, seen as critical in carrying out successful military operations.
As these forces shift to an offensive war against the coup regime, Min Aung Hlaing warned his army to prepare for “conventional warfare,” utilising regular combat methods as well as introducing guerrilla tactics and ambushes—the strategies currently employed by the resistance.
Ko Cho contributed to this report.
